Market Overview: Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT) – October 3, 2025

• EPICUSDT opened at $1.816 and traded between $1.786 and $1.898 before closing at $1.803, down from its session peak.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the early morning, signaling a potential reversal after a sharp rally.
• Volume spiked during the afternoon (16:00–19:15 ET), coinciding with a failed test of the $1.87–$1.88 resistance cluster.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory late in the session, suggesting limited downside momentum ahead.
• Volatility expanded midday before contracting in the final hours, hinting at range-bound behavior.

Opening, Closing, and Price Action

Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT) opened at $1.816 on October 2 at 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of $1.898 before closing at $1.803 at 12:00 ET on October 3. The pair traded within a volatile $0.113 range, with total volume amounting to 299,656.9 and turnover of $548,524.3.

The session saw a significant push toward $1.898, which failed to hold, triggering a pullback that accelerated after 19:15 ET. A large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart during the morning hours and a late-arriving oversold RSI reading suggest short-term exhaustion following the failed breakout.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels emerged around $1.87–$1.88 and $1.895, both of which saw rejection and bearish reversal patterns. A bearish engulfing candle at 17:30 ET marked a turning point, confirming pressure from short-term sellers.

Support levels held at $1.85–$1.86 and $1.80–$1.81 during the decline, with a doji forming near $1.803 in the final candle, indicating indecision. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with $1.833, which was tested but not decisively broken.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages intersected twice, creating a potential signal of a short-term trend reversal. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line during the afternoon, forming a death cross that reinforced bearish momentum.

On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100 and 200-period lines, indicating a longer-term bullish bias. However, recent daily closes below the 50-period MA suggest weakening near-term sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the afternoon and remained below the signal line, with bearish divergence evident during the failed breakout attempt. RSI moved into oversold territory late in the session, dipping to 28, which may hint at potential short-term bounce, but bearish momentum remains intact.

Bollinger Bands widened during the afternoon session, reflecting heightened volatility around the $1.87–$1.89 level. The closing price fell within the lower band, indicating a potential pullback scenario.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 18,050.8 at 00:15 ET and again at 09:15 ET, coinciding with failed breakouts and sharp retracements. Notional turnover mirrored the volume spikes, with significant activity concentrated in the 16:00–19:30 ET timeframe.

Price and turnover divergence occurred during the midday rally, suggesting that buyers were unable to maintain momentum. The late-session decline was supported by moderate volume, indicating fading bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent swing from $1.814 to $1.898 was retraced to 38.2% at $1.833 and 61.8% at $1.860. Both levels were tested, with $1.860 acting as a minor support during the afternoon pullback.

On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the prior month's range aligns with $1.81–$1.82, which was the consolidation area for the final hours of the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves a short-bias entry on the 15-minute chart when the price closes below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirmed by a bearish engulfing candle and RSI below 30. The stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance, typically the 61.8% retracement level, while the target is a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio based on the entry price.

Historical data shows this setup would have captured the bearish move on October 3 after the 17:30 ET engulfing pattern. The strategy assumes continued pressure from short-term sellers, with the 15-minute chart signaling a probable continuation pattern.