Market Overview: Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT)

• EPICUSDT fell from a high of $0.83 to a low of $0.682, closing near $0.704 at 12:00 ET.
• A sharp downward move after 15:30 ET broke key support levels and triggered increased bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD confirmed overbought conditions had reversed into oversold territory during the decline.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, signaling heightened volatility across the 24-hour period.
• Volume surged during the selloff, especially in the final 6 hours, confirming bearish sentiment.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT) opened at $0.797, hit a high of $0.83, and a low of $0.682, closing at $0.704. The 24-hour volume totaled 369,658.2 coins, with a notional turnover of $233,949.06. A sharp bearish reversal took place from 15:30 ET onward, with the price dropping below a series of key support levels and failing to reclaim higher ground.

The 15-minute chart shows a breakdown below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs in the final hours, with the 50-period SMA at ~$0.78 acting as a failed support. A bearish engulfing pattern was confirmed at the high of $0.83, followed by a long bearish tail at $0.821. On the daily chart, the 200-period SMA is at ~$0.76, suggesting the recent move is aligning with longer-term bearish structure.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed into oversold territory at ~25 by the end of the session, indicating potential exhaustion in the downward move. However, the MACD crossed below the signal line early in the session, confirming a shift in momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the selloff, with price trading near the lower band for multiple hours. A bearish breakout from a tight consolidation range near $0.79–$0.80 preceded the collapse.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the swing high at $0.83 and swing low at $0.682 show that the final close of $0.704 aligns with the 61.8% retracement level (~$0.714). This suggests potential short-term support could hold in the near term. Volume remained elevated during the selloff, particularly between 15:30 and 18:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Backtest Hypothesis

To back-test the “support breaks” idea, we propose using a 50-day simple moving average (SMA-50) of daily closing prices as a proxy for medium-term support. A “support break” occurs when the closing price falls below the SMA-50 after having closed above it the previous day — a clear downward cross. This definition is objective and widely used in quantitative strategies to identify trend reversals.

Applying this rule to EPICUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 would yield a series of event dates. The back-test would then analyze the impact of each event by evaluating average returns, win/loss ratios, and drawdowns over multiple time horizons (e.g., 7, 14, and 30 days). Additional constraints, such as stop-loss and take-profit thresholds, could be added if desired.

This approach allows investors to assess the historical effectiveness of reacting to support breaks with mechanical discipline. If confirmed, we will run the event-based back-test to provide actionable insights into potential risk and reward characteristics of this strategy for EPICUSDT.