Market Overview for EigenLayer/Bitcoin (EIGENBTC) – 2025-10-14

• EIGENBTC declines by -1.26% over the last 24 hours, closing at 1.150e-05.
• Price action shows a bearish divergence between volume and price during the overnight sell-off.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions after the early-morning selloff, suggesting potential near-term consolidation.
• Volatility surged following a sharp dip in the early hours, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 24-hour high, hinting at continued downward momentum.

EigenLayer/Bitcoin (EIGENBTC) opened the 24-hour period on 2025-10-13 at 1.200e-05 and closed at 1.150e-05 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. The pair reached an intraday high of 1.245e-05 and a low of 1.111e-05. The total traded volume over the period was approximately 80,020.55, with a notional turnover of roughly 0.95 BTC-equivalent. Price action shows a bearish trend over the past day, with key resistance levels near 1.200e-05 and support near 1.140e-05 appearing relevant.

The 15-minute chart shows the price closing below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a weakening trend. The daily chart confirms this bearish alignment as EIGENBTC is also below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the session high, further reinforcing bearish sentiment. Price has since tested a prior support level at 1.145e-05 but remains in consolidation.

MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover, and the RSI has dipped below 30, indicating potential oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly following the sharp morning selloff, with price currently sitting just above the lower band. Volatility appears to be settling slightly in the latter half of the 24-hour period, though price remains within a key bearish channel.

Fibonacci retracements indicate a 61.8% retracement level at 1.150e-05, which aligns with the current close. This suggests that the downward move from the 1.245e-05 high may be nearing a key retracement threshold. While consolidation is likely in the near term, a break below 1.140e-05 could lead to further downside. Investors may want to monitor the 1.200e-05 level for potential short-covering or a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

For an event-driven backtest of MACD Death Cross signals on EIGENBTC, the strategy could evaluate positions entered on bearish crossovers and exited on the next bullish crossover (Golden Cross), with a stop-loss of 5% and a take-profit of 5% as risk controls. Given today’s bearish MACD signal, this setup could be tested on the 2022–2025 dataset. Testing on daily close prices would allow for a robust analysis of the strategy's effectiveness in trending and ranging environments.