Market Overview for eCash/Tether (XECUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Price fell sharply from $0.00001756 to $0.00001494, driven by a massive volume spike around 21:00 ET.
• Key support levels at $0.00001485 and $0.00001468 tested, with a bearish continuation expected.
• RSI hit oversold territory at ~25, but price remains below the 20-period MA, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band.
• Turnover surged to over $30.2B at the bottom, suggesting potential short-term capitulation.

The eCash/Tether (XECUSDT) pair opened at $0.00001744 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00001756, and a low of $0.00001485 before closing at $0.00001494 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 98,945,687,400, while notional turnover hit $1,442,509,561. This session was marked by a sharp decline, with a long bearish shadow forming as price closed near its daily low.

Structure and formations show a strong bearish bias, with a key support level at $0.00001485 and $0.00001468. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 19:30 ET as price fell from $0.00001713 to $0.00001689, confirming downward momentum. Doji formed near $0.00001500 and $0.00001495, indicating indecision, but they failed to reverse the trend. The price has remained below all key moving averages, with the 20-period and 50-period MAs trending downward and offering bearish resistance.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish narrative. The RSI hit oversold territory (~25), typically a sign of potential bounce, but the MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover confirming ongoing pressure. Price remains below the lower Bollinger Band, with volatility expanding—particularly after the 9:00 PM ET volume spike. The 20-period Bollinger Band width increased by ~150%, indicating a likely continuation of the trend or a temporary rebound before further downside.

Fibonacci retracement levels suggest that the 38.2% ($0.00001588) and 61.8% ($0.00001511) levels were tested and rejected, reinforcing bearish bias. The price may now aim for the $0.00001468 level as the next support. A test of this area could trigger further selling or a short-covering bounce, depending on buying pressure. For the next 24 hours, traders should watch for a break below $0.00001468 and the response to it, as it could signal a deeper correction or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the technical signals observed—strong bearish momentum, a bearish engulfing pattern, and price action below key moving averages—a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-biased approach. A hypothetical entry could be placed upon a close below the 20-period MA ($0.00001545) with a stop-loss near the nearest Fibonacci level ($0.00001511) and a target near $0.00001468. A long position could be considered only after a confirmed bounce above the 50-period MA and a bullish reversal pattern. This strategy would benefit from high volatility and would need to be exited or hedged if the RSI closes above 50 or the MACD shows a bullish crossover.