Market Overview: eCash/Tether (XECUSDT) on 2025-09-22

• XEC/USDT declined by 14.8% over 24 hours, breaking below key support at 1.92e-05.
• Price formed bearish engulfing patterns and a deep doji near 1.907e-05, signaling indecision.
• RSI hit 28 (oversold), while MACD crossed below zero, confirming bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded after 00:30 ET, with volume surging 500% during the breakdown.
• Turnover surged to $575M at the lows, indicating increased conviction among sellers.

eCash/Tether (XECUSDT) opened at 1.94e-05 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.945e-05, and closed at 1.811e-05 by 2025-09-22 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw price dip to a low of 1.743e-05. Total volume traded was 13,575,444,000 XEC, with notional turnover reaching approximately $247 million USD.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a bearish breakdown from a congested range between 1.93e-05 and 1.945e-05. Price action on the 2025-09-22 00:30–00:45 ET window formed a bearish engulfing pattern, followed by a doji at 1.907e-05, confirming a potential reversal. Key support levels were observed at 1.92e-05, 1.89e-05, and 1.85e-05, with 1.85e-05 now at risk.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20SMA and 50SMA, confirming short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is at 1.90e-05, while the 100DMA and 200DMA hover near 1.88e-05 and 1.86e-05, respectively. Price is now below all major moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The 12–26–9 MACD for the 15-minute chart turned negative mid-day on September 22, with a bearish crossover and expanding histogram. The RSI has remained in oversold territory (25–30) since the breakdown, suggesting potential for a rebound, though it does not guarantee one.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the breakdown phase, with the Bollinger Band width widening from 0.0000000015 to 0.0000000052. Price closed well below the lower band, indicating a strong bearish bias. A reversal may be considered if price rebounds and closes above the 1.85e-05 upper band of the new short-term range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked 500% during the breakdown at 00:30–01:00 ET, with over 9.5 billion XEC traded and a notional turnover of $174 million. This suggests strong conviction among sellers. Turnover diverged with price after 05:00 ET, with declining volume despite lower prices, hinting at a potential short-term pause in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the 1.93e-05 to 1.743e-05 swing include 1.85e-05 (38.2%), 1.81e-05 (50%), and 1.78e-05 (61.8%). The 50% level coincides with the 1.81e-05 zone, which may see increased support over the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering short positions at confirmed breakdowns of a 4-hour congestion range, with a stop loss placed above the 50-period SMA and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Given today’s breakdown from 1.93e-05 to 1.85e-05 and the 50SMA at 1.88e-05, the 1.85e-05 level represents a potential target for continuation.

Forward Outlook & Risk

Price may test 1.85e-05 next, with a potential bounce into the 1.86–1.88e-05 range. Traders should watch for a close above 1.89e-05 to signal a possible reversal. However, the risk remains of a continuation below 1.85e-05, especially with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.78e-05 in focus.