Market Overview for dYdX/Tether (DYDXUSDT)

• Price action showed a sharp decline during the early ET session before stabilizing.
• Volatility expanded significantly as price dropped from 0.3768 to 0.3438 in one session.
• Volume increased during key price swings, suggesting active participation in both directions.
• RSI and MACD indicated weakening momentum and potential oversold conditions in the latter half of the session.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, hinting at increased uncertainty in the market.

The dYdX/Tether pair (DYDXUSDT) opened at 0.3752 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.3768 and a low of 0.3365 before closing at 0.3444 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, trading volume amounted to 23,764,717.52 and notional turnover reached 7,670.81.

Structure & Formations

The price of DYDXUSDT formed a bearish continuation pattern during the session, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern emerging around 19:00 ET when the price moved from 0.3663 to 0.3529. This was followed by a series of lower highs and lows, indicating a strong downward bias. A key support level was identified around 0.3400-0.3430, where the price found multiple times over the session, and this area may offer temporary support in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover, with the 20-period MA falling below the 50-period MA, indicating a bearish signal. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 EMA lines continued to trend lower, confirming a sustained bearish bias. Price remains well below all major moving averages, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at the beginning of the decline and remained negative throughout the session, indicating strong bearish momentum. The RSI indicator hit oversold territory (below 30) around 0.3430, suggesting that the price may have reached a short-term floor and could potentially consolidate or rebound from this level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish momentum and the RSI reaching oversold conditions, a potential strategy could involve a cautious long position near 0.3430 with a stop-loss just below this level and a target of 0.3500-0.3550. This would aim to capture a short-term bounce off the oversold RSI while remaining mindful of the dominant bearish trend. A backtest would need to evaluate how often such bounces materialize within a larger bearish trend and whether they offer consistent returns with acceptable risk-reward ratios.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the price decline, reflecting increased volatility. The price remained well below the lower band for extended periods, reinforcing the oversold conditions. A potential reversal could be signaled if the price starts to move back toward the middle band in the coming hours.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged during key price swings, particularly between 20:00 ET and 02:00 ET, when the price moved from 0.3529 to 0.3373. This suggests strong participation from traders and institutional activity pushing the price lower. Notional turnover increased in tandem with volume, indicating that the price movement was not a result of thin liquidity but active trading.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 0.3768 to 0.3438, the 38.2% retracement is at 0.3602, the 50% at 0.3603, and the 61.8% at 0.3604. However, the price has yet to retrace toward these levels and remains below them. A potential rebound from the 0.3430 support could bring the 38.2% retracement into focus as a possible resistance level.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

While the market appears to have reached a short-term floor near 0.3430, the dominant bearish trend suggests that further downside is likely without a strong reversal. Investors should remain cautious and consider using stop-losses to manage downside risk. A sustained rebound above 0.3500 would be a positive sign, but the current structure remains bearish.