Market Overview for DUSKBTC: 2025-10-11

• Dusk/Bitcoin (DUSKBTC) drifted lower, closing at 4.2e-07, down from 5.8e-07
• Price collapsed sharply between 21:30 and 22:30 ET, breaking below key psychological levels
• MACD and RSI signal weak momentum and bearish bias, with no signs of oversold conditions
• Volume surged during the selloff, but price and turnover diverged near session lows

Dusk/Bitcoin (DUSKBTC) opened at 5.8e-07 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at 4.2e-07 by 12:00 ET the following day. The pair hit a high of 5.8e-07 and a low of 2.6e-07, reflecting significant intraday volatility. Total traded volume amounted to 5,825,704.0 units, with a notional turnover of $2.52 (based on average price).

The price action unfolded in a clear bearish sequence, with the most dramatic movement occurring between 21:30 and 22:30 ET when DUSKBTC fell from 5.5e-07 to 4.1e-07. This collapse broke through a key horizontal support level, previously acting as a psychological floor. A 5.8e-07 to 4.1e-07 leg saw multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower wick in the 21:30 candle, signaling rejection of higher levels. A doji formed at 4.1e-07, hinting at a potential short-term pause, but was quickly invalidated by further selling.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels identified include 4.1e-07, 3.9e-07, and 3.7e-07, with the last two acting as critical near-term floors. Resistance is clustered between 4.3e-07 and 4.5e-07, where price has previously stalled. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 21:30 candle, confirming a breakdown in sentiment. This was followed by a consolidation phase near 3.9e-07-4.1e-07, which may provide a temporary floor for further correction.

Support/Resistance Levels

- Strong Support: 3.7e-07, 3.9e-07
- Strong Resistance: 4.3e-07, 4.5e-07

Patterns Identified

- Bearish Engulfing: 21:30 ET candle
- Doji: 21:45 ET and 10:45 ET candles, indicating indecision
- Bullish Rejection: 09:30 ET candle (closed at 4.3e-07 after opening at 4.4e-07), suggesting a possible countertrend bounce

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key price levels during the selloff, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period MA currently rests at 4.35e-07, suggesting that any move above this level could attract buyers. The 20-period MA at 4.25e-07 is acting as a near-term pivot point. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period MAs are all aligned bearishly, with the price well below all three.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator turned sharply negative after the 21:30 ET breakdown, with a bearish crossover confirmed by the signal line. This indicates accelerating downside momentum. The RSI has remained in oversold territory (below 30) for several hours, but has not triggered a significant bounce. This suggests weak short-term demand and a potential continuation of the downward trend. A bullish reversal would likely require an RSI close above 40 and a positive MACD crossover.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the selloff, with the bands widening from a contraction observed between 20:00 and 21:30 ET. At the time of writing, price remains near the lower Bollinger Band (4.15e-07), indicating oversold conditions. This positioning may encourage buyers to enter near support, but a breakdown below the band could signal further weakness. A bounce above the middle band (4.3e-07) would indicate renewed bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, peaking at 980,855 units during the 21:30 candle. This high-volume breakdown suggests strong conviction among sellers. However, turnover (notional value) did not follow suit as aggressively, indicating potential divergence. This divergence implies that while volume is confirming bearish momentum, the actual value moved was less than expected, possibly due to lower prices. This could signal a temporary exhaustion of sellers or a lack of buyers to absorb the falling price.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels for the recent 5.8e-07 to 2.6e-07 move include:- 23.6% retracement at ~4.5e-07
- 38.2% at ~4.3e-07
- 61.8% at ~3.8e-07

Price is currently consolidating near the 38.2% retracement level, which may act as a temporary support or pivot. A breakdown below 3.8e-07 could target the 61.8% level at 3.7e-07 or lower. The 4.3e-07 level has been tested twice and may now act as a resistance upon a potential retracement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a break below the 4.1e-07 support level with a stop above 4.3e-07. The target would be the 3.7e-07 level, based on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This setup would align with bearish patterns identified earlier and would seek to capitalize on the continued bearish momentum. The 50-period MA and RSI could act as additional confirmation tools. A long entry could be triggered on a close above 4.3e-07 with a stop below 4.2e-07, aiming to capture a potential countertrend bounce.