Market Overview: Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) – Sharp Sell-off and Oversold Conditions Emerge

• Price dropped sharply from 6.362 to 5.158, with a bearish trend dominating the 24-hour period.
• Volume spiked significantly around 06:15 ET and 15:00 ET, aligning with large price declines.
• RSI hit oversold territory at the close, suggesting potential for short-term bounce or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion, indicating high volatility.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted key support levels around 5.22–5.30.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 6.324 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.097 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 6.374 and a low of 4.999, with total volume reaching 8,837,188.3 and a notional turnover of approximately 43,427,284.0 Turkish Lira.

Over the past 24 hours, DOLOTRY has been in a steep downtrend, with a sharp selloff beginning in the early hours of 2025-09-22. The price action shows a clear breakdown below key support levels, with the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trending lower and failing to provide support. A key support level appears to have formed around the 5.20–5.25 range, as price bounced from this area multiple times before continuing lower.

The RSI has dropped into oversold territory at the end of the period, indicating a potential pause in the downward move, though bearish momentum as measured by MACD remains strong, with the histogram showing declining positive momentum. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly in the early morning hours of 2025-09-22, signaling high volatility. Price has remained near the lower band for much of the day, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Fibonacci retracements from the recent high of 6.374 to the low of 4.999 show key levels at 5.22 (38.2%) and 5.30 (61.8%), which may offer temporary resistance if price attempts to rebound. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed just before the sharp drop, confirming the downtrend. Volume spiked sharply during the early morning hours and again around midday, confirming the move lower. However, a divergence in volume and price during the late afternoon may indicate a potential short-term reversal or consolidation.

The 50-period and 100-period moving averages on the daily chart are also in bearish alignment, with the 50-period below the 100-period. A strong support level appears to be forming at the 5.20–5.30 range, but a break below this could accelerate the decline. Traders should watch for a potential bounce or continuation depending on how the RSI reacts and whether volume diminishes or surges again.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could involve entering a short position on a confirmed break below the 5.20 support level, with a stop-loss just above the 5.30–5.35 range and a target near the 5.00–5.05 level. Alternatively, traders could look to go long on a reversal sign such as a bullish divergence in RSI or a rejection from the 5.20–5.30 support zone with increasing volume. The strategy could be refined with Fibonacci retracements and Bollinger Bands as part of a multi-criteria signal. Given the recent volatility and clear trend, DOLOTRY appears to be in a phase where trend-following or breakout strategies may have an edge, though caution is warranted due to the high drawdown risk.