Market Overview for Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) – 2025-10-06 to 2025-10-07

• Price opened at $4.88, surged to $5.136, and closed at $4.816, showing mixed 24-hour volatility.
• A strong bearish divergence appears in RSI after the midday rally, suggesting exhaustion in bullish momentum.
• Volume surged during the midday bullish move, but faded during the late-day decline, signaling potential weakness.
• Bollinger Band expansion indicates heightened volatility, with price near the upper band at one point.
• A long-legged doji at 20:45 ET signals indecision, followed by a bearish candlestick confirming downward pressure.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at $4.88 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $5.136, and closed the 24-hour period at $4.816. The pair saw total volume of 5,256,845.4 units and a notional turnover of $24,989,329.35. The 24-hour session was marked by sharp, volatile swings and mixed candlestick patterns, indicating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels emerged around $5.035–$5.136, where price struggled to close above after midday. A notable long-legged doji formed at 20:45 ET, signaling indecision among traders. This was followed by a bearish candle at 21:00 ET, which confirmed downward pressure. A bullish engulfing pattern formed earlier at 19:15–19:30 ET, briefly pushing price above $5.11, but it failed to hold. Support appears to be consolidating around $4.80–$4.83, where price found temporary refuge during the late session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below price after the midday rally, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, price closed below the 200-period MA, reinforcing a bearish bias. The 50-period and 100-period MAs are also showing a downward trend, indicating continued bearish pressure over the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early evening, confirming a bearish shift in momentum. The RSI peaked at 69 in the midday rally, then fell sharply to 48 by the end of the day, indicating overbought conditions had been resolved. A potential divergence between price and RSI suggests weakening bullish momentum as the rally failed to extend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the midday bullish push, with price reaching the upper Bollinger Band before retracting. By the end of the session, price had fallen within the lower half of the bands, suggesting a consolidation phase may be forming. The narrowing of the bands in the early morning suggests a period of range-bound trading before the midday breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday bullish wave with a $484,670.9 trade at $5.041, while the bearish phase saw lower volume, with only 146,440.0 units traded by the final hour. Notional turnover peaked at $2,475,000 at 19:30 ET but fell below $1,000,000 by the close. This divergence between volume and price action suggests the bullish move may have lacked follow-through support.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the midday high of $5.136 and the low of $4.848, the 50% retracement at $4.992 served as a key level of resistance. The 61.8% retracement at $4.918 was briefly tested but failed to hold. On a broader scale, the 61.8% retracement from the daily high to the daily low also aligned with the consolidation zone around $4.80–$4.83, suggesting it may offer near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a bearish engulfing pattern following a bullish engulfing pattern, and the RSI divergence observed, a potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting on the close of the bearish engulfing pattern after a confirmed retest of a Fibonacci level. A stop-loss could be placed above the high of the bullish engulfing pattern, while a take-profit target might be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This setup would aim to capture the bearish continuation bias while minimizing exposure to sudden rebounds.