Market Overview for Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) – 2025-09-19

• Price dropped sharply overnight, reaching a 24-hour low of 6.26 before partial recovery.
• Volume surged during the decline but weakened after 07:00 ET, signaling fading selling pressure.
• Key support at 6.20–6.25 held twice, while 6.50–6.55 appears critical for near-term resistance.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum until midday, with recent divergence hinting at potential reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply during the drop, indicating increased volatility and potential consolidation.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 6.51 at 12:00 ET–1 and fell to a low of 6.26 before closing at 6.44 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a 24-hour high of 6.645 and a total volume of 21,081,719.9 and a notional turnover of 130,534,565.1 TRY. Price action was marked by a sharp bearish reversal overnight and a tentative recovery in the morning session.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a strong bearish structure, with price forming a large bearish engulfing pattern from 03:45 to 04:00 ET and a long lower shadow from 04:15 to 04:30 ET—both indicative of aggressive selling. A key support zone formed between 6.20 and 6.25, where the price found buyers twice. Resistance appears strong between 6.50 and 6.55, as price failed to break above this level after multiple attempts. A doji at 09:30 ET suggests indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (MAs) crossed below price during the overnight drop, confirming the bearish trend. The 50-period MA currently sits at 6.38, and the 20-period MA at 6.42—both below the 12:00 ET close of 6.44, suggesting a potential recovery attempt. Daily 50/100/200 MAs remain bearish, with the 50-period daily MA at 6.52, indicating a potential retest of the 6.50 level in the coming sessions.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned positive after 09:45 ET, reflecting initial short-term bullish momentum. However, the histogram remains small, and the signal line is still above it, suggesting weak strength. The RSI hit oversold territory at 28 during the 04:15–04:30 ET range but has since recovered to 46, indicating a tentative balance between bulls and bears. Divergence appears between price and RSI during the 07:15–09:30 ET period, hinting at possible near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the overnight sell-off, with price trading near the lower band at 6.26. This expansion indicates increased volatility and a potential consolidation phase. As price climbed back into the mid-band range by 09:30 ET, traders may expect a sideways consolidation before the next directional move. A close above the mid-band (currently ~6.45) could signal a short-term bullish attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish move from 03:45 to 06:30 ET, peaking at 1.02 million at 10:45 ET with a close of 6.483. Turnover mirrored this pattern, with a high of 6.492 million TRY at 11:00 ET. However, both metrics began to decline after 07:00 ET, suggesting that aggressive sellers may have taken profit or lost interest. Price and turnover have shown some divergence, especially after 09:30 ET, which could indicate a weakening bearish trend and a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the overnight drop from 6.645 to 6.26, key levels are now at 6.46 (38.2%) and 6.52 (61.8%). Price briefly tested 6.46 after the 09:30 ET low and appears to be consolidating around it. A break above 6.52 could trigger a larger bullish move, while a retest of the 6.327 level (from the 03:45 ET low) could see renewed bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price action and technical signals, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a long entry after a bullish divergence in RSI and a close above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 6.431 level, with a target near 6.52 (Fibonacci 61.8%). This setup leverages momentum confirmation and trend continuation principles, aligning with the current price recovery attempt. A short trade could also be considered on a breakdown below 6.431, especially if MACD confirms the bearish momentum.