Market Overview for Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) on 2025-09-18

• Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) rose from 6.523 to 6.853 before retracing to close near 6.539.
• Price broke above 6.6 and 6.7 psychological levels, showing strong bullish momentum before profit-taking.
• Volume spiked at key reversal points, especially after the 6.853 high, indicating potential market exhaustion.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions during the 6.853 high, followed by a sharp correction and bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the rally, then contracted during the retracement, suggesting consolidation ahead.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 6.523 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and peaked at 6.853 before settling at 6.539 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The 24-hour period saw total volume of 31,537,930.3 and notional turnover of 210,605,078.5. The pair exhibited a strong bull trend followed by bearish profit-taking, suggesting possible consolidation.

Structure & Formations

DOLOTRY formed a bullish breakout above key resistance at 6.75 and 6.8, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern near the 6.853 high. A doji candle formed near 6.736, indicating indecision after a sharp move. Support levels emerged at 6.7, 6.65, and 6.53, with the 6.513 level acting as a key psychological floor. The price then retested the 6.53 level, failing to break it, which signals the potential for a short-term reversal.

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart indicated a bullish trend during the morning and early afternoon session but flipped to bearish after 2025-09-17 23:45. The daily chart showed a crossover between 50 and 200-day lines, hinting at possible bearish momentum over the next cycle. Bollinger Bands expanded during the bullish phase and then contracted during the consolidation phase, indicating a likely reversal or continuation setup.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero during the bullish phase but showed bearish divergence as the price peaked near 6.853. RSI pushed into overbought territory, reaching 76, and then sharply declined, confirming bearish exhaustion. The RSI divergence between price and momentum suggests a potential reversal scenario, with a possible bounce from the 6.513 support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bullish breakout, particularly at the 6.853 high, reaching over 177,000. Notional turnover mirrored this, peaking at 1.07 million. However, as price retraced, volume contracted, indicating a bearish exhaustion phase. The divergence between volume and price action during the retracement phase suggests that selling pressure is decreasing, potentially setting up for a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels showed key resistance at 6.834 (38.2%) and 6.755 (61.8%) during the retracement. Price tested these levels and bounced back, suggesting potential for a rebound toward the 6.68 level. On the daily chart, a Fibonacci extension of the 2025-09-17 18:00–23:45 move indicated a possible 6.62–6.68 consolidation zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering long positions when the price breaks above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and the RSI is above 50, with a stop-loss at the previous swing low. Short positions are entered when the price breaks below the 50-period MA and RSI is below 50. Based on the current structure, this strategy would have captured the 6.75–6.853 move with a tight stop at 6.72. However, during the retracement phase, the strategy would have triggered a short entry around 6.75–6.736, aligning with the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence. This suggests the strategy is effective during clear trend phases but less so during consolidation.