Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY)

• DOGEJPY opened at 38.82 and closed at 38.91, with a high of 39.87 and a low of 38.50 over 24 hours.
• Price experienced a late-session pullback after reaching a 24-hour peak above 39.85, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked during the price peak but declined sharply after 04:00 ET, signaling weakening conviction.
• RSI entered overbought territory briefly and closed near neutral, indicating potential for consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, reflecting increased volatility and uncertainty.

Opening and Price Action

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at 38.82 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at 38.91 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 39.87, while the low was recorded at 38.50. The total trading volume was 4,429,098.0, with a total turnover of approximately 169,817,636.0 yen. The session saw a strong push to the upside before a sharp pullback in the overnight Asian session.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the last 24 hours shows a strong bearish reversal signal during the late Asian session, marked by a long upper wick from 04:00 to 05:00 ET. A key support level appears to have formed at 38.90–38.92, which was tested and held twice. A potential resistance area is forming at 39.10–39.15, with recent attempts to break through failing. A notable pattern is a hanging man at 05:45 ET and a shooting star at 04:00 ET, both suggesting a possible top formation.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly into the short-term trend, signaling a shift in sentiment. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period line, forming a potential death cross on the 15-minute timeframe. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA remains above the 100- and 200-period lines, though the 50-period line appears to be flattening, indicating weakening bullish momentum.

The MACD turned negative in the early morning hours and has since remained bearish, confirming the pullback. RSI briefly entered overbought territory near 70 but has since declined to a neutral level near 50, suggesting price consolidation is likely in the near term.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late-day rally, especially between 22:15 and 04:00 ET, reflecting heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band, which may act as a short-term floor. Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 39.87 high to the 38.50 low indicate a potential 61.8% retracement level at 39.10, which aligns with the key resistance cluster noted earlier. The 38.2% retracement level at 38.96 has already served as a resistance in recent candlesticks.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the bullish phase, peaking at 230,859 units at 22:15 ET. However, volume collapsed sharply after 04:00 ET, which may indicate waning buying interest. Turnover dropped from ~6.9M Yen at 22:15 ET to below 1M Yen by 06:00 ET, further reinforcing the bearish momentum. The divergence between price and volume suggests a possible reversal or consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be designed based on the observed divergence between price and volume. A long entry could be triggered when price breaks above 39.10 with confirmation volume exceeding 200,000 units, targeting a stop at the 38.90 support and a profit objective at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (39.10). A short entry could be initiated after a bearish engulfing pattern forms at the 38.90–38.92 level, with a target at the 38.70–38.75 support zone. The strategy should include a trailing stop to protect profits during a volatile pullback.