Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-03 12:00 ET

• DOGEJPY traded in a tight range early, followed by a sharp rally to 38.64 before consolidating near 38.20.
• Price formed multiple bullish engulfing and bearish harami patterns during the 24-hour period.
• RSI reached overbought and oversold levels, showing volatile but mixed momentum.
• Volume spiked during the 22:00–05:00 ET window, coinciding with key price moves.
• Bollinger Bands showed contraction early, followed by expansion during the rally.

Opening and Price Action

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at 37.35 on 2025-10-02 12:00 ET and reached a high of 38.64 before closing at 37.77 as of 2025-10-03 12:00 ET. The total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 9.99 million units, with a notional turnover of roughly JPY 368.5 million, indicating moderate but active participation in the pair during the session.

Structure and Key Levels

The price action revealed several key support and resistance levels during the 24-hour period. A strong short-term support appeared around the 37.65–37.70 level, which was tested multiple times and held firm during the latter half of the session. On the higher side, 38.20–38.40 acted as a key consolidation range after a sharp rally from 37.90. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 37.56–37.68 level on 10-02 17:15 ET, suggesting a possible reversal. Later, a bearish harami at 38.53–38.47 on 10-03 03:30 ET hinted at a potential top near that level.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) showed a bullish crossover early in the session before the 22:00 ET rally. This crossover confirmed the strength of the upward move, but the 50-period line began to pull back after 04:00 ET, suggesting short-term exhaustion. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sat around 37.80, aligning with the 38.00 level as a potential pivot point. The RSI oscillated between overbought (>70) and oversold (<30) conditions, indicating a choppy and momentum-driven session.

Volatility and MACD

Bollinger Bands showed a clear contraction at the start of the session, followed by a sharp expansion as the price surged past 38.20–38.64. Price remained within the upper and lower bands for much of the session, indicating moderate volatility. The MACD crossed into positive territory during the 22:00–05:00 ET window, confirming the strength of the rally, but the histogram started to shrink as the 05:00 ET level approached, signaling a potential reversal.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume spiked between 22:00 and 05:00 ET, with the largest single spike occurring at 00:00 ET, when the price closed at 38.55. This was accompanied by a 101,108-unit volume, suggesting strong participation during a key breakout. However, the volume began to contract after 06:00 ET, while the price continued to trade sideways, indicating weakening conviction. Turnover also showed a similar pattern—rising sharply during the rally and declining during consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Swings

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing low at 37.65 and the high at 38.64, the 38.20 level aligned closely with the 61.8% retracement level, reinforcing its importance as a potential area of support/resistance. On the daily chart, the 37.80–38.00 zone coincided with a 38.2% retracement from a previous leg, further supporting its role as a key area.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the bullish engulfing pattern as a buy trigger and the bearish harami as a sell signal, while placing stops just below key support (37.65) and above key resistance (38.20). Given the 24-hour data, a test of this approach would need to include volume filtering—buy only when volume exceeds 50,000 units on a bullish pattern, and sell only when volume exceeds 50,000 units on a bearish pattern. The 20-period SMA could serve as a filter for trend alignment, while the MACD histogram could be used to confirm momentum. This approach aligns with the observed patterns and volume behavior, suggesting it may offer a viable test in a simulated environment.