Market Overview for Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) – November 4, 2025

Summary
• Price declined from 0.1698 to 0.1661 as a key support near 0.1660 was tested.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, hinting at a potential short-term rebound.
• Volatility increased during the Asian session before a contraction phase began in the afternoon.

Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) opened at 0.1683 on November 3, reached a high of 0.1716, and closed at 0.1661 by 12:00 ET on November 4. The 24-hour volume amounted to 936,455,515 DOGE, with a notional turnover of $154.9 million.

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish bias, with price testing support levels near 0.1660 and 0.1650. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 17:00–17:15 ET candle, confirming the downward shift in sentiment. A doji near 0.1666 at 05:45 ET suggests indecision and possible near-term consolidation.

Price has moved below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA stands at 0.1678, and the 200-day MA is at 0.1652. DOGEUSDT is currently consolidating near its 200-day MA, which could serve as a key support level.

The MACD line is below zero with a negative histogram, suggesting bearish momentum. RSI has dipped into oversold territory at 30, which may offer a short-term rebound opportunity. Bollinger Bands have begun to contract, signaling a possible reversal in volatility or a continuation of the trend. Price is currently sitting near the lower band, indicating low volatility and potential for a bounce.

Volume increased significantly during the Asian session, peaking around 0.1680–0.1690. However, volume has since declined, aligning with the price consolidation. Notional turnover has also decreased, reflecting a reduction in market participation. No major price-volume divergence has emerged, but the decline in volume during the downward move could hint at a weakening bearish trend.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the recent 15-minute swing from 0.1716 to 0.1661 show 0.1692 at 23.6%, 0.1683 at 38.2%, and 0.1675 at 50%. Price has found resistance at these levels in the past, which may indicate potential turning points. On the daily chart, retracement levels from a key 0.1740–0.1650 move place 0.1678 at 23.6% and 0.1670 at 38.2%, both of which could act as near-term price targets.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy aims to identify and evaluate the profitability of trades initiated based on MACD golden crosses over a full historical period (2022-01-01 to 2025-11-04). Given the data timeout issue, we recommend proceeding with option 2—fetching the MACD data in two segments (2022-01-01 → 2023-06-30 and 2023-07-01 → 2025-11-04)—to ensure a reliable dataset. Once merged, the golden crosses will be detected, and a backtest will be conducted to assess win rate, average return, and risk-adjusted performance. This strategy could provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of MACD as a signal for DOGE/USDT.