Market Overview for First Digital USD/Tether (FDUSDUSDT) – 2025-11-02

• First Digital USD/Tether (FDUSDUSDT) closed near the 24-hour low, showing bearish consolidation.
• Volatility expanded in the overnight session, with a low of 0.9982 amid high volume.
• Price tested key psychological levels (1.0 and 0.9990) multiple times without decisive action.
• RSI approached oversold territory during the early morning, but lacked follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands widened, signaling potential for a breakout or continuation of range-trading.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02, First Digital USD/Tether (FDUSDUSDT) opened at 0.9999, hitting a high of 1.0 and a low of 0.9982, before closing at 0.9984. Total 24-hour volume reached approximately 584.4 million, while notional turnover stood at roughly 578.9 million USD. Price action indicated a bearish bias amid moderate volatility.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bearish consolidation, with price repeatedly testing the 1.0 and 0.9990 levels without breaking decisively. Several bearish engulfing patterns appeared during the early morning, especially between 09:15 and 11:45 ET, suggesting short-term selling pressure. A long-legged doji at 10:00 ET indicated indecision, and key support levels emerged around 0.9990 and 0.9982, where price found repeated bids.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in bearish alignment, with the 20SMA dipping below the 50SMA by the morning session. Over the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 200DMA are closely aligned, suggesting a potential shift in trend if price closes above 0.9999. The 100DMA remains slightly bearish, reinforcing the short-term bias to the downside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover during the overnight session, with negative momentum persisting into the morning. RSI dipped into oversold territory (≤ 30) during the early morning hours (around 06:30–07:15 ET), but failed to generate a strong follow-through. This suggests potential for a bounce, but a breakout above 0.9997 may be needed to confirm a reversal. Overbought conditions have not been reached, keeping the bearish narrative intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly overnight, with price fluctuating between the outer bands. The 20-period standard deviation increased from approximately 0.0001 in the prior evening to 0.0003 by 06:00 ET. Price closed the day at 0.9984, near the lower band, signaling potential for a short-term bounce or a continuation of the bearish trend. The widening bands suggest increasing volatility and a likely continuation of directional movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in two distinct clusters: one during the overnight session (05:00–07:00 ET) and another in the early afternoon (14:00–16:00 ET). The largest single candle volume (9.3M) occurred at 05:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop to 0.9985. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with a notable divergence between price and volume at 18:00 ET, where volume increased but price failed to break below 0.9995. This may suggest weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the overnight swing from 1.0 to 0.9982, the 38.2% level at 0.9993 and 61.8% at 0.9987 were key support levels. Price found bids at both during the morning, with the 0.9987 level acting as a temporary floor. On the daily chart, retracements of the prior week’s move from 1.0 to 0.9984 showed the 38.2% at 0.9993 and 61.8% at 0.9989 as key areas for potential reversals or consolidations.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves identifying RSI ≤ 30 as an entry trigger for a 5-day hold, typically used in equity ETFs. However, the requested asset “HOLD.P” appears to be unavailable or misaligned with the available data interface. Given the bearish RSI readings observed on FDUSDUSDT earlier in the day, a similar strategy could be adapted for this pair if the 14-day RSI ≤ 30 condition is confirmed. For the next iteration, consider providing a widely-covered ETF (e.g., SPY or GLD) or confirming the correct ticker for the intended asset to proceed.