Market Overview for DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) - 2025-11-11

Summary
• DIA/Tether opened at $0.4796 and closed at $0.4761, with a 24-hour high of $0.4931 and low of $0.4690.
• Price showed a bearish bias after a sharp intraday rally to $0.4931, followed by a pullback.
• Volume spiked during the $0.48–$0.4931 range, but turnover failed to confirm bullish strength.

DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) traded with a 24-hour open of $0.4796 at 12:00 ET–1, and a close of $0.4761 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.4931 and a low of $0.4690 over the period. Total volume amounted to 251,334.0 units, with a notional turnover of $122,221.00. Price action shows a clear bearish bias following a failed breakout above key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period displayed a key bearish reversal pattern after the rally to $0.4931, forming a potential shooting star and a larger bearish harami. Key support levels were identified around $0.4850 and $0.4750, with the latter acting as a crucial psychological level. Price may test $0.4700 next, with a breakdown likely if $0.4750 fails.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly into a downtrend, suggesting short-term weakness. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA structure remained bearish, with price below all three lines, indicating a long-term bearish trend could continue.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover during the pullback from $0.4931, with negative momentum building. RSI dropped from overbought levels (>70) to around 50, signaling a moderate pullback. A drop below 40 could signal further weakness, with a target to $0.4690–$0.4700 likely if momentum holds.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within the Bollinger Band range throughout the 24-hour period, with volatility peaking around the $0.4931 high. The bands widened during the rally but have since compressed, suggesting a consolidation phase. Price remains above the middle band but is trending lower, indicating bearish pressure may persist.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the $0.4820–$0.4931 rally but failed to confirm strong bullish conviction, as turnover did not rise proportionally. This divergence suggests sellers may be stepping in at higher levels. Conversely, buying interest picked up slightly around the $0.4700–$0.4750 range, suggesting some short-term accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high at $0.4931 and swing low at $0.4690, the 61.8% retrace level is at $0.4811. Price has already retested this level multiple times, suggesting it could act as a key pivot. A break below the 38.2% retrace level at $0.4775 could confirm further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish technical setup, a viable backtesting strategy could involve a short-biased trade triggered on a break of the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop placed above the recent high of $0.4884. A target of $0.4720–$0.4700 is reasonable, with a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio. This strategy would align well with the prevailing bearish momentum and key support levels identified.