Market Overview for DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) on 2025-10-24

• DIA/Tether traded in a 24-hour range of $0.4023–$0.4202, closing near the mid-range at $0.4085
• Price action shows a bearish bias in the overnight hours, with retests of recent support near $0.4070–$0.4080
• Turnover exceeded $100M, with volume clustering in the 00:00–08:00 ET window
• RSI suggests oversold conditions near $0.4070, but lack of follow-through bearish momentum hints at possible bounce
• Bollinger Bands constrict in late morning, signaling potential for volatility expansion

DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) opened at $0.4139 on October 23 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.4085 the next day at the same time. The pair reached a high of $0.4202 and a low of $0.4023 over the 24-hour period, with total trading volume of 590,374 and notional turnover of $244,906. The price action showed bearish pressure through the overnight hours, followed by a consolidation around $0.4080–$0.4090 in the late morning.

Over the past 24 hours, DIAUSDT formed a descending pattern, with bearish momentum evident during the early hours as the price moved from $0.4169 down to $0.4070–$0.4080. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bearish, with the 20-SMA crossing below the 50-SMA for part of the session. A bearish crossover on the MACD reinforced this trend, while RSI hit oversold levels near $0.4070, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, follow-through buying has been limited, leaving the door open for further consolidation or another leg down.

Bollinger Bands constricted during the late morning hours, with the price hovering near the lower band. This suggested increased volatility ahead. The bands expanded after 06:00 ET, reflecting renewed short-term uncertainty. On the daily chart, the 200-day SMA sits near $0.4150–$0.4170, a level that has acted as resistance in recent sessions, and the price is currently below that level. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of $0.4202 to the low of $0.4023 suggest a 38.2% level near $0.4099 and a 61.8% level near $0.4149, both of which may serve as potential pivot points in the near term.

Volume was concentrated between 00:00 and 08:00 ET, with significant notional turnover during the early morning decline. This suggests a possible short-term topping process during that period. Notably, price and turnover diverged in the late morning, with volume increasing but price failing to make a new high, a sign that bearish pressure could still be in play. However, RSI’s oversold readings and the price hovering near the lower Bollinger Band may indicate a potential bounce near current levels.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy for DIA/Tether could center around the Bollinger Band touch method: buying at the close when the price touches or pierces the lower Bollinger Band and exiting 24 hours later. In today’s session, the price reached or approached the lower band multiple times in the early hours, particularly between 00:00 and 04:00 ET. A buy signal would have been triggered if a close below the lower band was confirmed at that time. The exit would have been at the next day’s 00:00 close, which closed at $0.4085. Given the volatility seen following the 06:00 ET bounce and the subsequent consolidation, such a rule-based strategy could have captured part of the rebound or limited losses in the bearish phase. A longer-term backtest using this or similar rules could help quantify the strategy’s viability across different market conditions.