Market Overview for DeXe/Tether (DEXEUSDT): 24-Hour Price Deterioration and Oversold Conditions

• Price declined by 4.8% over 24 hours, with 12.45 as a key support.
• Volatility increased mid-day, but volume failed to confirm bullish breaks.
• RSI dropped below 30, signaling potential oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Band contraction observed early, followed by a sharp expansion post-22:00 ET.
• Bearish engulfing pattern formed at 13.45, preceding a sharp drawdown to 12.32.

DeXe/Tether (DEXEUSDT) opened at 13.041 on October 7 at 12:00 ET and closed at 12.181 on October 8 at the same time. The price hit an intraday high of 13.434 and fell to a low of 12.13, with total volume of 342,779.35 and total turnover of approximately $4.53M over the 24-hour period. The pair has shown bearish momentum and appears to be consolidating at key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price formation over the last 24 hours revealed several key features. A bearish engulfing candle formed at 20:00 ET on October 7, marking the top of a sharp rally from 13.05 to 13.43. This was followed by a broad distribution phase, with price failing to retest the 13.40 level. A key support level emerged at 12.55–12.60, where the price found repeated bounces. A doji candle formed at 03:30 ET on October 8, indicating indecision after a short-lived rebound. The pair closed the 24-hour period on a small bearish candle, confirming continued bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below price action, confirming the bearish trend. The 50-period line acted as a dynamic resistance, with price failing to close above it for most of the session. The MACD line showed a bearish crossover early on October 8, aligning with the breakdown of the 13.40 level. The MACD histogram expanded during the midday sell-off, suggesting strong bearish momentum.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the 15-minute chart dipped below 30 during the early hours of October 8, entering oversold territory. This coincided with a rebound attempt but failed to trigger a reversal. Bollinger Bands showed a notable contraction around 16:00 ET on October 7, followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke down. Price spent the majority of the session in the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a prolonged bearish phase with low volatility preceding the sharp move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off from 13.40 to 12.32 between 14:00 and 16:00 ET. However, turnover failed to confirm strong bearish conviction as the price moved closer to key support levels. A volume divergence was observed between 22:30 and 03:00 ET, where price continued to fall while volume decreased. This divergence suggests potential exhaustion of the downward move and may indicate a short-term bounce is forthcoming.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 13.05–13.434 swing, the 61.8% level sits at 13.20, which the price held briefly before breaking down. On the broader 13.041–12.13 move, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements are at 12.68 and 12.45, respectively. The price found support at both levels during the session, with 12.45 showing strong buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern formation, confirmed by a close below the 50-period moving average. Stops can be placed above the 20-period MA or at the high of the engulfing candle. Profit targets could align with key Fibonacci levels, particularly the 61.8% and 38.2% retracements on the current downward move. This approach would aim to capture trend continuation and improve risk-to-reward ratios in a structured manner.