Market Overview for Dego Finance/Tether (DEGOUSDT)

• Price fell from 1.211 to 1.151 amid heavy selling in the early hours.
• Key support around 1.180 tested and rejected; RSI oversold but no reversal confirmed.
• High volatility seen in early ET session with volume spiking to over 109k.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price dropped, suggesting possible consolidation ahead.
• Recent bullish bounce failed to break above 1.204, indicating stalled momentum.

Dego Finance/Tether (DEGOUSDT) opened at 1.202 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.183 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The pair reached a high of 1.211 and a low of 1.136 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 573,422.95 with a notional turnover of approximately $686,600.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish continuation pattern with a strong rejection at key support near 1.180, indicated by a long lower shadow and a bearish engulfing pattern. A doji at 02:45 ET signaled indecision, followed by a strong bearish reversal candle the next hour. The price failed to break above 1.204 multiple times, reinforcing that resistance could remain formidable. The recent bounce from 1.151 to 1.194 shows a possible consolidation phase before further direction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line in the early morning hours, confirming a bearish bias. The 50-period line remained above 1.190 until midday, but the daily chart shows the 50-period SMA (50D) at ~1.195 and the 200-period SMA at ~1.200. Price closed below both, reinforcing the bearish structure and suggesting a possible continuation below 1.190 into the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the early hours, indicating bearish momentum. RSI reached oversold territory below 30 for a short period around 03:00 ET but did not trigger a bullish reversal, suggesting weak accumulation at the lows. The RSI currently resides near 45, suggesting neutral momentum with no immediate signs of reversal either bullish or bearish.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as price dropped from 1.200 to 1.151, indicating a high volatility phase. Price closed near the lower band on 07:00 ET, but the subsequent rally saw it move back into the middle band. The contraction seen after 10:00 ET may suggest a potential consolidation phase ahead. If price breaks below the 1.180 level, it could signal further bearish movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 1.211 to 1.151 shows key levels at 1.192 (38.2%), 1.181 (61.8%), and 1.171 (78.6%). Price found initial rejection at 1.181, suggesting that level could act as a pivot for further movement. The 61.8% level was tested multiple times but failed to hold, indicating bearish bias below 1.192. A break below 1.181 could target 1.171 next.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically from 10,000 to over 109,000 around 07:00 ET, confirming the strong bearish move lower. Notional turnover mirrored this, peaking at over $130,000 during the 07:00–07:15 ET hour. The subsequent consolidation from 10:00 ET onward saw volume decline sharply, indicating reduced conviction. Divergence between price and volume after 10:00 ET suggests reduced bearish follow-through, but without a clear reversal signal, the bearish bias remains intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy aims to profit from breakouts and retests of key Fibonacci levels (38.2% and 61.8%). A long signal is generated when price closes above the 38.2% retracement with confirmation by RSI above 50 and a bullish engulfing candle. A short signal is triggered when price closes below the 61.8% level with a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI below 50. Stop-loss is set at the next Fibonacci level below entry for longs and above for shorts. The strategy is intended for high-volatility periods with strong volume confirmation, as seen in this 24-hour period. The recent failure to hold 1.181 and the high volume breakdown suggest the short-side signal may have higher probability.