Market Overview for Decentraland/Tether (MANAUSDT) - 2025-10-07

• Price declined from 0.3509 to 0.327, a -7.1% drop over 24 hours.
• Key resistance at 0.3434–0.3452, with support near 0.3294–0.3344.
• High volatility seen in late ET hours, with volume surging at key breakouts.
• RSI reached oversold territory (<30), suggesting potential near-term rebound. • Bollinger Bands show a moderate contraction, signaling potential consolidation or breakout.

Price Action and Open-Interest Trends

Decentraland/Tether (MANAUSDT) opened at 0.3471 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.3509 before closing at 0.327 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. The pair saw a 24-hour trading volume of 12,898,340 contracts and a notional turnover of approximately $4,060,000 (based on average pricing). The price action reflects a bearish bias, with the lowest close occurring in the 15:15–15:30 ET timeframe.

A notable breakdown occurred after the 15:15 ET candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling a reversal of bullish momentum. The price then drifted lower with a series of bearish continuation patterns, including dark cloud covers and hammer-like reversal attempts that failed to hold. The key support levels formed around 0.3306–0.3344 and 0.3294–0.3308, with a breakdown below both in the final hours of the 24-hour window.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 15-minute chart shows the 20SMA and 50SMA both below the price, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI dipped below 30 for the first time during the 15:45–16:00 ET candle, entering oversold territory, though price continued lower. This suggests bearish exhaustion may not yet be reached, and a rebound could be delayed.

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the 15:30–15:45 ET candle, confirming bearish divergence. Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction during midday hours but expanded during the late ET sell-off, signaling a potential breakout phase. Price hovered near the lower band during the final candle, suggesting a possible bounce from oversold levels.

The daily chart shows the price below the 50DMA and 100DMA, with the 200DMA acting as a distant resistance at ~0.3470. A bearish bias appears to be consolidating, with momentum shifting to the downside.

Key Levels and Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute swing from 0.3485 to 0.3294 show key retracement levels at 38.2% (~0.3361) and 61.8% (~0.3336). Price tested these levels during the 04:00–05:00 ET timeframe but failed to hold, indicating weak buy pressure.

The daily swing from 0.3499 to 0.3270 shows a 38.2% retracement at ~0.3369 and a 61.8% at ~0.3352. These levels may act as immediate resistance if a near-term rebound occurs.

Looking ahead, 0.3306–0.3320 is a critical support zone, and a close above 0.3350 could signal a short-term bounce. A retest of 0.3270 may be expected unless a bullish reversal pattern forms.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply during the 15:15–15:30 ET and 14:15–14:30 ET candles, coinciding with key breakdowns and bearish reversals. The 15:15–15:30 ET candle alone accounted for ~1.2M contracts traded, suggesting significant liquidation pressure.

Turnover confirmed the volume surges, with a 14:15–14:30 ET candle printing $105,085 in notional value. Price and turnover aligned during these key moments, indicating genuine selling pressure rather than wash trading.

However, a divergence emerged during the 16:00 ET candle, where volume dropped despite a new low being printed. This may signal weakening bearish conviction, though price failed to reverse.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish exhaustion and oversold RSI, a backtest could be designed to test long entries on a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., a bullish engulfing or a hammer) forming at or near the 0.3294–0.3306 support zone, confirmed by a close above 0.3320 with a surge in volume. The stop-loss would be placed below 0.3270, with a target at 0.3352 and 0.3384.

This hypothesis is supported by the recent failed attempts to hold at 0.3336 and 0.3361, suggesting that a break above these levels could confirm renewed buyer interest. A 20-period RSI divergence or a bullish crossover of the 50/20 SMA could serve as confirmation signals.