Market Overview: DAIJPY — 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• DAIJPY opened at 147.51, reached 148.14, and closed at 147.68 with strong volume near the high.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish as RSI overbought levels and a bearish divergence signaled possible pullback.
• Volatility expanded mid-session before narrowing late, suggesting consolidation ahead of key levels.
• Volume and turnover aligned well with price action, with no major divergence observed.
• Key resistance near 147.8–147.9 and support near 147.5–147.6 appear critical for near-term direction.

Market Snapshot

On October 3, 2025, Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 147.51 (12:00 ET–1), hit a high of 148.14, and closed at 147.68 by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 199,485.04 with a notional turnover of 29,425,631.69 JPY. The pair showed mixed momentum, with sharp upward thrusts followed by pullbacks.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure featured a long upper wick from 147.8 to 148.14, indicating rejection of higher levels. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near the high at 148.1–147.95, suggesting a shift in sentiment. A doji formed near 147.97 at 04:45, signaling indecision and potential reversal. Key support and resistance levels are now defined: 147.51 (major support), 147.66 (minor support), 147.86 (minor resistance), and 147.91 (key resistance).

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed positively earlier in the session, confirming a short-term bullish trend before the 148.14 high. However, by early morning, the 50SMA began to flatten, aligning with the bearish engulfing pattern. The MACD crossed bearishly in the early hours of October 3, with a negative histogram suggesting waning momentum. RSI reached overbought levels near 70 during the afternoon spike, then dropped back to mid-50s by the close, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly around 02:00–04:00 as the price surged to 148.14, showing increased volatility. The price then fell back to the lower band by 07:00–09:00, indicating a bearish retracement. The narrowing of the bands from 09:00 onward suggests decreasing volatility and a possible pause in directional movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 00:00–01:00 period, coinciding with a strong upward move to 147.37, and again around 05:00–06:00 during the 148.13–148.11 consolidation. Turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the strength of key price levels. However, after the 148.14 high, volume dropped significantly, suggesting a lack of follow-through buying.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 147.05 to 148.14, the 61.8% retracement level is at approximately 147.75. The close of 147.68 nearly aligns with this key level, suggesting that further consolidation or a bounce could occur in the near term. The 38.2% level sits around 147.63, which has so far held as a minor support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering long positions when DAIJPY breaks above the 147.91 resistance level with confirmation from a bullish engulfing pattern and a positive MACD crossover. A stop-loss could be placed below the 147.66 support level, with a target near 148.14–148.17. Conversely, short positions might be initiated when the price retests the 147.66 level with bearish confirmation from a doji or bearish divergence in RSI. This strategy would benefit from a low-latency execution model and should be tested over multiple price cycles to assess robustness.