Market Overview for DAIJPY – 2025-10-28

• DAIJPY drifted lower overnight, closing near its low of 152.15 after a sharp intraday drop to 152.09.
• A bearish trend emerged post-midnight with high volatility and increased volume, particularly between 00:00 and 00:45 ET.
• Price found support near 152.15, forming a potential base, but momentum remains weak as seen in RSI.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the drop, signaling heightened volatility.
• Turnover surged with key trades after 00:00 ET, suggesting increased liquidity and possibly large sell orders.

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 153.15 on 2025-10-27 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 153.26, and closed at 152.33 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-28. The pair fell into a bearish consolidation, hitting a low of 152.09. Total volume for the period was 181,137.47 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $27,630,099.22 (assuming $1 unit value for DAIJPY; actual fiat value will vary based on JPY exchange rates).

Structure & Formations

DAIJPY’s 24-hour candlestick chart shows a strong bearish trend, particularly after midnight. A key support level appeared around 152.15–152.19, where the price found repeated bids. Several bearish patterns were evident, including a long-legged doji near 152.67 and a large bearish engulfing candle from 152.79 to 152.63. The price action suggests a breakdown from a prior consolidation range, with the low at 152.09 acting as a potential short-term floor.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period and 50-period moving averages in bearish alignment, confirming the downward momentum. The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 00:45 ET, signaling a bearish divergence. RSI hit oversold territory near 152.09, hinting at potential reversal or consolidation. However, the RSI remains in a bearish range, suggesting caution for further downside.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility increased dramatically during the early morning hours as DAIJPY broke below key support levels. Bollinger Bands expanded to the widest point of the day around 00:45 ET, confirming the increased volatility. Price remained below the middle band for most of the session, indicating bearish bias. A retest of the upper band might signal a reversal attempt, but this is unlikely unless there is a sharp volume upsurge or positive catalyst.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly around 00:00–00:45 ET with a large trade block at 00:15 ET (volume of 9,987.18 units). The price dropped sharply alongside increased turnover, suggesting a liquidation event or large institutional selling. Later in the session, volume normalized but remained above average, indicating continued bearish pressure. Notably, turnover dipped around 05:00–07:00 ET, which may indicate reduced short-term interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from 153.26 to 152.09, the 38.2% level is at 152.62 and the 61.8% level at 152.25. DAIJPY has bounced off the 61.8% level multiple times, suggesting it may act as a short-term support. A break below this level could bring the 50% retracement at 152.66 into focus. If bullish momentum returns, the 38.2% level may become a resistance for a potential rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical setup, a backtesting strategy could be structured around the Fibonacci retracement levels and key moving average crossovers on the 15-minute chart. A possible hypothesis is to enter short positions when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level with confirmation from bearish MACD and RSI divergence. A stop-loss could be placed just above the 50% level, while a take-profit target may be placed at the next support level or the 78.6% extension. This strategy would benefit from using DAI/JPY data reconstructed via DAI/USD × USD/JPY, as the symbol “DAIJPY” is not directly available in the backtesting database. If the synthetic data matches the observed candlestick behavior, the strategy could be implemented for further testing.