Market Overview for Dai/Yen (DAIJPY): 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• DAIJPY edged higher over 24 hours, closing near session high amid moderate volume spikes.
• Key resistance at 153.02 appeared to hold, with price retreating from prior overbought levels.
• Volatility expanded during midday, with 15-minute swings reaching 0.17 Yen.
• On-balance volume suggested strong accumulation near 152.7–152.9 range.
• A potential bullish engulfing pattern formed near 152.71–152.88, hinting at possible short-term continuation.

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 151.98 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at 152.97 on 2025-10-23 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 153.17 and a low of 151.80 over the period. Total volume was 52,094.99 and notional turnover stood at ~7.94 million JPY. Price action shows a broad consolidation into a key ascending wedge pattern.

The 15-minute chart revealed a series of ascending breakaways and pullbacks, with strong volume surges during upward pushes, particularly after 19:45 ET when a sharp rally to 152.04 occurred. The price found strong support at 152.71–152.80 multiple times, suggesting a developing base. Notably, a bullish engulfing pattern formed during the 06:15–06:30 ET period near 152.71–152.88, which may signal a continuation of the current upswing.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA in the latter half of the session, indicating short-term bullish momentum. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) remain broadly neutral, with DAIJPY hovering above the 200-day MA but lacking a clear directional bias from longer-term trends. This suggests that while short-term bulls are active, larger timeframes remain cautious.

MACD turned positive after 06:00 ET, with a bullish crossover and a narrowing histogram, aligning with higher volume and price action. RSI remained in the 55–65 range, indicating moderate strength without reaching overbought levels, thus reducing the risk of a near-term reversal from exhaustion. However, the absence of RSI readings above 70 suggests limited upside momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 06:00 ET, reflecting a period of heightened volatility, with price closing near the upper band—suggesting a potential correction.

Fibonacci retracements from the 151.80–153.17 swing show 152.71 at 38.2%, which was a key support zone. The 61.8% retracement at 152.47 also held during midday selloffs. These levels may offer potential re-entry points should price correct. Looking ahead, a break above 153.17 would suggest a move toward 153.50, while a test of 152.71 could set the stage for a consolidation phase or a deeper pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest aims to evaluate a momentum-based strategy using RSI overbought signals (>70) as sell triggers, with a 5-day holding period. Given the DAIJPY dataset, this strategy would generate sell signals when RSI exceeds 70 and close the position after 5 days. To proceed, accurate RSI data for DAIJPY is essential. If confirmed that “DAIJPY=X” from Yahoo Finance or a specific exchange like “BINANCE:DAIJPY” is the intended source, I can fetch the required data and execute the backtest from 2022-01-01 through today. Alternatively, if you can supply a CSV/JSON price series, I can compute RSI directly and run the test from there.