Market Overview for Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT)

• Price surged 10.5% over 24 hours, forming a bullish breakout above $0.7841.
• Volume increased steadily during the breakout, confirming momentum.
• RSI showed moderate overbought conditions, suggesting potential pullback.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating heightened volatility.
• A key support zone appears at $0.77–$0.775.

The CRVUSDT pair opened at $0.7625 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and surged to a 24-hour high of $0.7954. It closed at $0.7716 at 06:15 ET on 2025-10-04 with a low of $0.7612. The total volume traded in this period was 10,288,937.6, and the notional turnover amounted to approximately $7,984,329.4.

Structure & Formations

CRVUSDT formed a bullish breakout pattern as it pushed past the $0.7841 resistance level. Key support levels appear at $0.77 (tested multiple times) and $0.7649. Candlestick formations like hammers and bullish engulfing patterns emerged in the morning hours, reinforcing the positive bias. However, a bearish divergence between price and RSI in the late hours may hint at a possible pullback or consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line, signaling a short-term bullish shift. The 50-period line, currently at $0.7785, is acting as a dynamic support. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is above the 100 and 200-period lines, suggesting a longer-term upward trend is in place.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram expanded positively in the morning, confirming bullish momentum, but has since started to contract, indicating some weakening. The RSI reached 62 at the session high and is now around 56, still suggesting the market is not in overbought territory. However, if it rises above 65, a cautionary note may be needed.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly following the breakout, indicating a period of heightened volatility. Price has been trading above the middle band for most of the day, which is typical in bullish phases. A move back to the lower band could trigger a retest of key support levels before further upside is expected.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased gradually throughout the session, peaking around 17:15 ET and again in the early hours of 10-04. This supports the validity of the breakout. Notional turnover also aligned with volume increases, suggesting that the price action was well-backed by liquidity. Divergences between volume and price were not observed, but a drop in volume during the afternoon hours coincided with a consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the morning surge from $0.7625 to $0.7954, the 61.8% retracement is at $0.7820, and the 38.2% is at $0.7775. These levels appear to have played a role in price action, as the pair found resistance around $0.783 and support at $0.7775. For the daily chart, the 50% retracement from a recent leg down is at $0.784, which aligns with the breakout level.

Backtest Hypothesis

If a strategy were backtested using a combination of RSI overbought/oversold conditions and bullish/bearish engulfing patterns, it could have identified long entries during the morning breakout and short entries as RSI approached overbought levels in the afternoon. The strategy would aim to capture the initial move and a retracement. This aligns with the observed 15-minute chart dynamics and suggests that a rules-based approach could have captured a significant portion of the move.