Market Overview for Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT)

• Price closed higher after a bearish morning, finding support near $0.7673 before rallying.
• Key resistance at $0.78–$0.785 and support near $0.77–$0.775 confirmed by price action and volume.
• RSI overbought near 70 in the late morning suggests potential pullback, while MACD turned bullish.
• High volatility expanded Bollinger Bands after 04:00 ET, with volume increasing by ~30% in key breakout hours.
• A breakout above $0.785 could target $0.80, while a retest of the 0.7673 level could trigger further buying.

Price Action and Volatility

Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT) opened at $0.7676 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.7919 before closing at $0.7835 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. The 24-hour period saw total trading volume of approximately 22,986,688.9 and notional turnover of $17,815,737.77. The price experienced a sharp rebound from $0.7673 early in the morning and pushed higher toward $0.78–$0.79 by late afternoon and early evening.

Structure & Key Levels

The price formed a bearish morning setup around $0.768–0.769 before turning sharply higher. A key support zone was established between $0.7673 and $0.7715, and a strong bullish breakout occurred after 04:00 ET, with the price rising through $0.785–$0.79. Notable candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing pattern between 05:00–05:45 ET and a bullish pinocchio at $0.7755–$0.7832. The $0.78–$0.785 range appears to be a critical resistance area, while the $0.77–$0.775 range acts as key support.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in favor of the bulls, with the 20SMA above the 50SMA. The daily chart (100/200) also showed a bullish bias, with the price above both the 100 and 200-day moving averages. The RSI reached overbought territory (~70) in the late morning and afternoon, suggesting a possible near-term pullback. However, the MACD remained positive, indicating strong bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 04:00 ET, indicating rising volatility, with the price spending much of the session in the upper half of the band. This suggests increased bullish activity, with the price frequently touching or exceeding the upper band during the breakout. A contraction may follow if the price stabilizes in the coming 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the breakout phase, with a large volume spike observed between 04:00–06:00 ET, especially in the hour ending at 05:00 ET. The notional turnover also increased by over 30% in that period. The volume and price action were in alignment, with higher volume supporting the price movement. No significant divergence was observed, reinforcing the strength of the breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were used to identify key retracement areas based on the morning’s bearish swing from $0.7673 to $0.785. The 38.2% retracement at $0.774 and the 61.8% retracement at $0.7835 were both tested and held. A breakout above the 78.6% level near $0.795 could indicate a continuation of the upward trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering long positions on a bullish breakout above a key Fibonacci 61.8% level, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and a volume spike. A stop-loss is placed just below the support level, with a target set at the next Fibonacci extension level. Using the current CRVUSDT price action as a test case, the breakout above $0.7835—confirmed by strong volume and a bullish pattern—could be a valid entry point. The strategy appears to align well with the observed price behavior, suggesting it may be effective for similar setups.