Market Overview for Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT)

• Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT) declined 7.3% over the last 24 hours, closing near 0.7106.
• Price broke below a key 0.7225 support level, with bearish momentum intensifying in late ET hours.
• Volume surged during the 0.73–0.71 pullback, indicating increased selling pressure.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting possible near-term exhaustion in the bearish trend.
• Volatility expanded as price widened its range within Bollinger Bands, signaling increased market uncertainty.

At 12:00 ET on October 9, 2025, Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT) opened at 0.743, reached a high of 0.7682, and closed at 0.7106 following a prolonged bearish correction. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 27,331,635.6, with a notional turnover of $18,836,814.6. The price action suggests a breakdown in a short-term bullish trend, marked by a sharp move lower after 0.7300 became a key resistance-turned-support-turned-resistance.

Key support levels formed at 0.7100–0.7150 and 0.7225, while resistance remains intact at 0.7280 and 0.7300. A large bearish engulfing pattern developed during the 15-minute chart at 03:00–03:15 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. A doji at 0.7151–0.7153 (09:45–10:00 ET) hinted at indecision following the drop, though bearish control remained dominant.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, with the 50-SMA crossing below the 20-SMA during the late-night sell-off, confirming a bearish crossover. The RSI fell into oversold territory below 30 during the final hours of the 24-hour window, suggesting a potential near-term bounce. However, MACD remained bearish with negative divergences during the decline, reinforcing the strength of the downward move.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 15-minute timeframe, particularly between 02:00 and 04:00 ET, when price moved from near the upper band to the lower band. This expansion reflects increased volatility and trader uncertainty. Volume spiked during the 0.74–0.72 correction, especially around the 0.7225 support break, but declined during the final 0.72–0.71 phase, indicating exhaustion rather than a rally in bearish conviction.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 15-minute swing from 0.7682 (high) to 0.7106 (low) identified key potential reversal levels. The 61.8% retracement level sits at 0.7353, and the 38.2% at 0.7430. If the price attempts a bounce from the 0.7100–0.7150 zone, the 38.2% retracement level could act as immediate resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger correction lies near 0.7550, a level to watch for potential reversal or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the price breaks below the 0.7225 support level on the 15-minute timeframe, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and volume expansion. A stop-loss is placed just above 0.7280 (the 50-period SMA), while the initial target is the 0.7150–0.7200 zone. If the RSI rises above 35 with increasing volume and a bullish reversal candle forms, a long position could be considered for a short-term bounce. This strategy relies on a combination of price action, moving averages, and volume signals to confirm trend strength or exhaustion. Given the recent dynamics, this approach could have yielded a successful short trade over the past 24 hours.