Market Overview for CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC)

• Price surged 8.6% from 0.3537 to 0.3764 on high volume in early hours before consolidating.
• Momentum accelerated midday, peaking at 0.3792, followed by a sharp pullback to 0.3661.
• Late-day consolidation near 0.371–0.372 suggests key support/resistance may form around this range.
• Volume spiked over 20,000 COW at 0.3757 and 0.3661, indicating high interest at these levels.

Market Summary

Over the past 24 hours, CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) opened at 0.3537 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET, and closed at 0.3764 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET. During this period, the price reached a high of 0.3792 and a low of 0.3536. Total trading volume for the 24-hour window was 191,866.8 COW, with notional turnover amounting to $72,880.56, based on trade amounts.

Structure & Formations

Price action began with a bearish consolidation phase early in the morning, followed by a sharp upward breakout in the early hours of 2025-09-13. A key bullish engulfing pattern formed at 0.3601–0.3696, followed by a strong hammer formation at 0.3678–0.3696, indicating a potential reversal in bearish momentum. However, a bearish harami emerged at 0.3792–0.3661, signaling a pullback. Notable support levels formed at 0.3661–0.3663 and 0.3678–0.3696, with resistance at 0.3716–0.3722 and 0.3741–0.3755.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

Using 15-minute data, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA around 0.3664–0.3673, signaling a bullish crossover. MACD turned positive mid-morning and remained elevated through midday before diverging with price. RSI surged to 68–72 in the morning peak, indicating overbought conditions, then dropped below 42, suggesting oversold levels in the pullback. On the daily scale, the 50-day SMA sits at 0.363, with the 200-day SMA at 0.358, suggesting a bullish bias for the near-term.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci

Volatility expanded sharply between 0.3661–0.3792, with price reaching the +1.5σ level before retracting. Price settled near the 0.3716–0.3722 range, just above the 0.371 Fibonacci retracement level (61.8% of the 0.3661–0.3792 move). A 38.2% retracement level at 0.3755 could offer resistance ahead of the 61.8% at 0.3721, making it a potential consolidation zone for the next 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 0.3757 with over 21,314.1 COW traded, and again at 0.3661 with over 27,438.5 COW, suggesting strong institutional or algorithmic activity at these levels. Notional turnover also spiked at both points, aligning with price action. A divergence appeared late in the session as volume fell below 1,000 COW while price continued consolidating—suggesting weakening momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could use the engulfing patterns and bullish crossovers in the 15-minute chart to enter long positions, with stop-loss placed below the 0.3661 support level and take-profit aligned with the 0.3755–0.3721 retracement zone. Given the high volume at key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels, a mean-reversion model using MACD divergence and RSI overbought/oversold levels could be viable for short-term trades.