Market Overview for CoW Protocol/USD Coin (COWUSDC) on 2025-09-05

• Price surged 0.9% from 0.3285 to 0.3389, with 24-hour volume spiking to 27805.4
• Bullish momentum visible post-03:00 ET, breaking above key resistance at 0.3333
• RSI near 50, indicating balanced momentum, while Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility
• Volume-based confirmation supports price gains, no divergence noted in turnover

The CoW Protocol/USD Coin (COWUSDC) pair opened at 0.3285 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.3427 before closing at 0.3389 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET. The total trading volume over the 24-hour period amounted to 27805.4, with a total turnover of COWUSDC $9561.6 (based on average price of ~$0.343).

Structure & Formations

COWUSDC displayed a bullish breakout above the 0.3333 resistance level, previously acting as a key ceiling for the past 36 hours. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 03:00 and 04:00 ET, as the pair surged from 0.3323 to 0.3333. Following this, a consolidation phase occurred until 07:00 ET, when a new wave of buyers pushed the price past 0.3400. A significant bearish rejection occurred between 14:00 and 15:00 ET, with a large red candle closing near the 0.3377 level. This candlestick formation suggests a potential support zone forming around 0.3370–0.3380.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bullish crossover around 03:00 ET, reinforcing the breakout momentum. By the end of the 24-hour period, the price remained above both, suggesting continuation of the bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50 and 100-period moving averages are converging at around 0.332–0.333, with the 200-day MA acting as a key long-term reference point. The price currently sits slightly above the 50-day MA, indicating a short-term positive bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12,26,9) turned positive after 03:00 ET, confirming the bullish breakout. The histogram expanded until 08:00 ET, after which momentum began to slow. RSI remained in balanced territory, moving between 50 and 60 for most of the day, indicating healthy, but not overextended, bullish momentum. A slight bearish divergence appeared in the late afternoon as price made a higher high but RSI failed to confirm it. This suggests caution ahead of any further advances, as the indicator may signal a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly following the 03:00 ET breakout, indicating increased volatility. The price remained above the upper band for about 90 minutes before consolidating within the bands. By late afternoon, the bands had started to contract again, suggesting a period of reduced volatility. Currently, COWUSDC is trading near the midline of the bands, which is a sign of equilibrium and potential for either continuation or consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 12:30 ET, when 27,805.4 units were traded, coinciding with a price increase from 0.3385 to 0.34. This marked the strongest hourly period in terms of notional turnover and was followed by a continuation of the upward trend. The next major volume event was at 14:30 ET, during a sharp pullback from 0.3411 to 0.3377. Despite the downward move, the high volume during this period indicates strong conviction from sellers. No divergences between price and volume were observed, supporting the idea of a genuine trend continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.3323 to 0.3411, key levels at 0.3365 (38.2%) and 0.3349 (61.8%) acted as temporary supports and resistances. On the daily chart, a major 61.8% retracement level at 0.3348 has been tested twice in the past 24 hours, most recently at 14:30 ET, and appears to be a critical short-term support. A break below this level could see the pair testing the 0.3327–0.3330 range next.

Backtest Hypothesis

The given backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when the 20-period moving average crosses above the 50-period line on the 15-minute chart, and exiting when RSI exceeds 65 or when volume declines by 30% from a peak. This strategy aligns with today’s bullish crossover at 03:00 ET, which was followed by a strong breakout and rising RSI. However, the RSI did not exceed 65 during the 24-hour period, suggesting the strategy would have held the position. A volume-based exit could have occurred at 08:00 ET when the 15-minute volume dropped significantly. Backtesting over multiple days would help assess how often this strategy captures bullish moves without being prematurely triggered by false RSI or volume signals.