Market Overview for Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) – October 4, 2025

• Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) declined over 24 hours, closing at $4.10 with bearish momentum.
• RSI below 30 suggests oversold conditions, but volume failed to confirm potential reversal.
• A significant breakdown occurred below the 4.25–4.30 resistance cluster, signaling a possible bearish continuation.
• Volatility expanded during the drop, with price reaching Bollinger Band lows.
• Fibonacci levels now highlight key support at 4.13–4.16, with a 61.8% retracement near 4.20 as critical.

Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) opened at $4.307 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.10 by 12:00 ET on October 4. The 24-hour range was between $4.272 and $4.353, with the price closing bearishly. Total volume was approximately 1,388,805.56 ATOM, and notional turnover reached $5,717,811.06.

The price structure over the last 24 hours shows a clear breakdown from a prior consolidation range between $4.25 and $4.30. This area acted as a short-term resistance, and the price now appears to be in a bearish channel. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged on October 4 around the 0900–1000 ET window, followed by a long bearish tail as prices fell toward $4.10. Additionally, the formation of a bullish harami at 0430–0445 ET failed to reverse the downtrend, indicating weak bullish participation. Key support levels now appear to be at 4.13–4.16 and 4.10, with resistance at 4.20–4.25 likely to test sentiment on any recovery attempt.

The 15-minute moving averages show a bearish crossover, with the 20-period EMA below the 50-period EMA. The 50-period MA on the daily chart also crossed below the 100 and 200-period lines, confirming a medium-term bearish bias. RSI is currently in oversold territory at 26, but this may be a function of continued selling rather than a reversal signal. The MACD remains bearish, with the histogram trending lower, reinforcing the downtrend. Bollinger Bands have widened over the last 6 hours, indicating increased volatility and a probable continuation of the current trend.

Price action and volume data suggest a divergence in sentiment. While the price closed significantly lower, volume and turnover increased during the afternoon and evening hours, indicating active selling pressure. However, volume dipped during the late-night to early-morning period, which might hint at exhaustion or a lack of buyers willing to enter at lower levels. This could be a sign of a potential short-term bounce from the current support zone at 4.10–4.13.

A move above 4.20 would be crucial for sentiment and could trigger a test of the 4.25–4.30 range. If buyers fail to hold above 4.20, the next key support is at 4.10. Traders should monitor for any bullish divergence in the RSI or strong volume spikes at the lower end of the Bollinger Bands for potential reversal signals.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential strategy for ATOMUSDT could involve a long entry at a 61.8% Fibonacci level near $4.13–4.16, with a stop-loss placed below $4.10 and a target of $4.20–4.25. This approach would rely on the assumption that the market may find near-term support at the 61.8% retracement level and that a bullish reversal could occur if volume increases and RSI shows divergence. The strategy could be backtested using daily and 1-hour RSI, MACD, and volume signals to confirm the setup.