Market Overview for Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) – October 4, 2025

• Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) closed 0.43% lower over 24 hours amid volatile price swings and diverging momentum cues.
• Key resistance at 4.332 and support at 4.280 formed as the price failed to reclaim previous highs.
• RSI shows oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bounce back is likely in the short term.
• Volume increased steadily in the last 6 hours, hinting at potential accumulation activity.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, signaling rising volatility, especially during late ET hours.

Market Snapshot

Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) opened at 4.276 on October 3 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 4.353 and a low of 4.236 before closing at 4.227 on October 4 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a total volume of 983,446.12 units traded over the 24-hour period, with notional turnover of $4,182,880. The price action reflects mixed signals with both bearish and bullish elements evident.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a notable bearish engulfing pattern around 17:00 ET, marking a key pivot in the day’s trend. A doji formed at 17:45 ET, signaling indecision before a retest of support at 4.280. Resistance at 4.332 held firm, with price failing to close above this level on multiple occasions. The formation of a bullish hammer at 04:30 ET suggested a potential short-term reversal, but it was not enough to reverse the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, reinforcing a bearish bias for the short term. The 50-period and 100-period lines on the daily chart remain in a descending sequence, indicating continued bearish momentum from a longer-term perspective. Price remains below all key moving averages, which suggests a continuation of the downtrend unless a strong break above 4.332 occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 17:00 ET, signaling bearish momentum. Histograms remained negative throughout the day, especially after the 18:30 ET time frame, indicating continued selling pressure. The RSI dipped into oversold territory (<30) around 05:30 ET, raising the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, the bearish divergence between price and RSI suggests the oversold condition may not be enough to reverse the trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 18:00 ET, reflecting increased volatility. Price action remained within the bands for most of the day, indicating a relatively contained move. A temporary close below the lower band at 04:30 ET confirmed an oversold condition. A retest of the upper band at 4.332 has been rejected multiple times, reinforcing its role as a strong resistance level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged during the late ET hours, with the most notable spike occurring between 17:00 and 18:30 ET, where volume exceeded 150,000 units in a single candle. This coincided with the bearish engulfing pattern and a retest of support at 4.280. A divergence between price and volume occurred after 01:00 ET, where price declined but volume remained relatively low, indicating potential exhaustion of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart highlighted 4.332 (61.8%) as the key resistance and 4.280 (38.2%) as the primary support. The 61.8% level was tested and rejected multiple times, reinforcing its strength. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level at ~4.290 appears to be forming as a potential area of consolidation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described utilizes a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band breakouts on the 15-minute chart. A potential entry trigger could be a bearish engulfing pattern following a RSI divergence, with a stop loss placed just above the upper band. Given the recent bearish divergence and failed attempts to reclaim 4.332, a short trade setup could be considered, with a target at 4.250 and a stop at 4.335. This strategy could be tested over a 24-hour period, especially with price hovering near key Fibonacci and support levels.