Market Overview for Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) - 2025-10-11

• Price dropped sharply from $4.00 to $2.53 amid heavy selling pressure and a massive bearish engulfing pattern.
• Momentum turned bearish with RSI below 30, suggesting oversold conditions, though volume remains elevated.
• Volatility spiked with wide Bollinger Band expansion, indicating heightened uncertainty and risk of a reversal.
• A key support level formed near $2.73–$2.75, with potential for a bounce or further breakdown if volume increases.
• Turnover surged during the breakdown phase but has since cooled, hinting at exhaustion or consolidation.

Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) opened at $3.971 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET, hit a high of $4.005 and a low of $0.001 before closing at $3.196 at 2025-10-11 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 19,054,529.85 and turnover reached $51,119,549.99. The session saw a dramatic selloff and recovery attempt, with significant volatility.

Structure & Formations

The price formation over the past 24 hours has been dominated by a strong bearish bias. A massive bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early hours of 2025-10-10, as price plummeted from $4.00 to $2.53. This pattern was followed by a consolidation phase between $2.73 and $3.15, with a key support level emerging near $2.73–$2.75 and resistance retesting around $3.15–$3.18. A potential bullish reversal candle emerged at $3.159–$3.131, but it was not enough to confirm a reversal. A 15-minute doji also formed near $3.13, suggesting indecision and potential consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are well below the current price, with the 50-period MA at $3.14 and the 20-period MA at $3.17. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are all bearish, with the 200-period MA currently at $3.22, suggesting further downward pressure unless the price retests and breaks the 50-period MA at $3.12.

MACD & RSI

The RSI is currently at 35, indicating oversold territory, though the divergence between the RSI and price suggests a potential bounce could be on the cards. The MACD is in negative territory with a bearish crossover, reinforcing the bearish momentum. However, a flattening in the MACD histogram suggests that momentum may be slowing, which could support a short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakdown phase, with the Bollinger Bands widening from $4.00 to $2.53. Price is currently trading near the lower band at $3.10–$3.15, which may act as a temporary support. A retest of the upper band at $3.18–$3.20 could be a sign of consolidation or a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was extremely elevated during the selloff, especially during the bearish engulfing pattern with a 15-minute candle showing $1.197 million in turnover. Since then, volume has declined, with turnover averaging $1.2M per hour. However, a divergence exists between price and volume—while price is moving lower, volume has not confirmed the continuation, suggesting potential exhaustion or a reversal may be near.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the major swing low ($2.53) to high ($4.00) include 38.2% at $3.38, 61.8% at $2.99, and 78.6% at $2.74. The price is currently hovering near the 78.6% retracement level at $2.74, which could act as either a pivot or a breakdown point depending on volume and order flow.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.74 with a stop-loss just below $2.70. A take-profit target could be set at $3.05, representing the 61.8% retracement level. The strategy would rely on RSI and MACD confirming a bullish reversal, such as a MACD crossover and RSI above 40. This approach would aim to capture short-term rebounds amid a larger bearish trend.