Market Overview for Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) declined 5.4% over 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour low.
• Volatility expanded, with high trading activity observed post 20:00 ET.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for near-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting heightened market uncertainty.
• Volume surged during late-night ETH hours, coinciding with a sharp pullback.

The Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) pair opened at 4.197 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET and closed at 4.063 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high and low were 4.199 and 4.006, respectively. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 959,236.29, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,926,794.08.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bearish bias, with the price breaking below key support at ~4.165 and testing levels near ~4.065–4.070. A long lower shadow at 04:45 ET suggested rejection at this level, forming a potential bullish hammer. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 20:00 ET as the price closed near the session low. A doji appeared at 03:30 ET, signaling indecision following a sharp decline. A descending triangle structure developed between 4.185 and 4.050, with a bearish breakout confirmed near 4.100.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price spent most of the period below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 4.170, while the 200-period MA is at 4.165, suggesting the price remains below critical long-term trend lines. The 100-period MA is also bearish at 4.180, with no immediate sign of retesting these levels in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, with a bearish crossover at 16:00 ET. RSI dipped below 30 during the overnight ETH hours, reaching 27 at 04:45 ET, suggesting oversold conditions and hinting at potential short-term buying interest. However, the divergence between RSI and price during the 05:00–07:00 ET rally suggests caution in interpreting a reversal too soon.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 20:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a 15-minute standard deviation of ~0.015 to ~0.035. The price remained near the lower band for much of the session, particularly between 04:00 and 06:00 ET, with a brief retest of the midline at 05:00 ET. A contraction phase occurred at 09:30 ET before another expansion, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged between 04:00 and 06:00 ET, coinciding with the price testing the 4.050 support level. Turnover spiked above $150,000 during this period, confirming the bearish breakdown. A divergence occurred between volume and price during the 08:30–10:00 ET rally, where turnover remained muted despite modest price recovery. This suggests limited conviction in the upside, with bears maintaining control.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent 4.199 high to 4.050 low include 4.125 (38.2%) and 4.085 (61.8%). Price found resistance at both levels but failed to hold above them. A retest of the 61.8% level may occur in the next 24 hours if short-term buyers enter the market. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from the prior 4.30 high is at ~4.25, which remains far from the current level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish trend, a potential short-term backtest strategy might involve a sell entry at a retest of the 4.050–4.070 support level, with a stop above the 4.100–4.110 area. A take-profit target could be set at the 4.015 level, based on the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the 4.199 to 4.050 swing. This aligns with the recent price behavior and RSI divergence, offering a risk-reward ratio of ~1:1.5. A long entry may be considered only on a confirmed break above 4.110, with a stop below 4.070 to manage risk.