Market Overview for Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) – 2025-09-21

• Cookie DAO/Tether declined 0.62% in 24 hours, with bearish continuation seen in key 15-min candlestick formations.
• Volatility picked up midday ET, expanding Bollinger Bands as price tested a critical Fibonacci retracement level.
• RSI drifted into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce after a prolonged bearish phase.
• Notional turnover surged in the early morning hours, indicating increased market participation and liquidity.
• MACD turned negative, confirming bearish momentum, with divergence between price and volume raising caution.

Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) traded between a high of 0.1312 and a low of 0.1243 in the last 24 hours, closing at 0.1307 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, down from an opening price of 0.13 at 12:00 ET − 1. The 24-hour volume amounted to 17,415,500, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,276,000.

The structure of the 15-minute chart reveals a bearish trend, marked by several engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow in the final candle of the 24-hour period, suggesting a potential bounce but not a reversal. A key support level appears to be forming near 0.1275–0.1280, with resistance at 0.1305–0.1310, where price has previously found rejection.

A 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart has been bearish, crossing below the 50-period line (death cross). On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period, indicating a more neutral to mildly bearish stance. Volatility, as seen in the Bollinger Bands, expanded significantly in the late afternoon, with price touching the lower band near the 0.1276–0.1280 zone, suggesting short-term oversold conditions.

The RSI has dipped into oversold territory, below 30, but has not yet generated a bullish reversal. MACD lines have crossed into negative territory, reinforcing bearish momentum. Volume and turnover diverged slightly in the early hours, with increased volume not matching the drop in price, suggesting a potential consolidation phase.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high (0.1312) to the swing low (0.1243) show key levels at 0.1275 (38.2%) and 0.1265 (61.8%). Price action has stalled near the 38.2% level, with a possible pullback or retest expected.

Looking ahead, the near-term path for Cookie DAO/Tether will depend on whether price can hold above 0.1275. A break below this level could accelerate the decline toward 0.1260–0.1250, while a retest of 0.1305–0.1310 may trigger a short-term bounce if buyers re-enter. Investors should remain cautious of potential volatility and monitor volume patterns for signs of exhaustion or follow-through selling.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for Cookie DAO/Tether could involve a mean-reversion approach based on RSI and Bollinger Band contractions. When RSI dips below 30 and price touches the lower Bollinger Band, a long entry could be triggered, with a stop loss placed below the most recent swing low. The target would be a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This strategy would align with the observed oversold conditions and the likelihood of a bounce. A short position could be considered if RSI crosses above 70 and price closes above the upper Bollinger Band. A 20-period moving average crossover could also be used as a filter for trend direction.