Market Overview: Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) – Volatile 24-Hour Drop Amid Key Support Test

• CVXUSDT fell 7.4% over 24 hours amid a bearish continuation pattern.
• Price broke below key support at $3.40, with RSI in oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Band widening, signaling increased uncertainty.
• Volume surged during the downward move, confirming bearish momentum.
• Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% ($3.30) now under pressure.

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.442 on 2025-09-24 at 16:00 ET and closed at $3.18 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour range was $3.453 to $3.103. Total volume amounted to 193,557.447 CVX, and notional turnover (amount) was 1,382.351 USDT. The asset continued its bearish trend, with price action and volume suggesting a breakdown in near-term equilibrium.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a clear bearish trend, with multiple lower closes and a breakdown below critical support levels. A key support zone at $3.40 was decisively breached, and price tested $3.30 during the night. A long bearish candle formed at $3.38–$3.259, indicating strong selling pressure. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed during the overnight session, and the price has not shown signs of recovery since. A doji formed at $3.26–$3.256, suggesting possible short-term indecision.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is well above the 50-period line, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 200-period MA, confirming a medium-term downtrend. The MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram expanding during the night, indicating growing bearish momentum. RSI has moved into oversold territory but has not shown a rebound, suggesting potential for further downside or a consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a 20-period standard deviation range of around $0.03 to as much as $0.07. Price spent much of the session near the lower band, indicating bearish exhaustion but not yet oversold conditions. The sharp break below $3.40 coincided with a band expansion, suggesting a potential continuation of the move to $3.25 or lower.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume and turnover data reinforce the bearish bias. The largest volume spikes occurred during the breakdown below $3.40 and during the continuation phase toward $3.26. The largest single candle was the $3.38–$3.259 bar with $3.259 close and a high turnover of 3.259 USDT. Price and turnover moved in unison, confirming bearish strength. A divergence between price and turnover was not observed, indicating consistent bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing from $3.453 to $3.103, the 61.8% level is at $3.267. Price is currently near this level and may consolidate here or break below for a test of the 78.6% retracement at $3.187. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger move from $3.60 to $3.00 is at $3.20. The key 50% level at $3.30 appears to be a potential zone of interest for buyers but has already been rejected twice.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a short-term bearish approach based on the breakdown of key support levels and confirmation from volume and RSI. A sell entry could be triggered on a close below $3.26 with a stop-loss above $3.33 and a target at $3.15. This setup would aim to capitalize on the continuation of the trend after a confirmed breakdown and increased momentum, as observed in the MACD and volume divergence. The setup is best suited for a 15-minute to 1-hour timeframe and could be backtested using historical data for confirmation of win rate and risk-reward ratios.