Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT): Strong Bullish Move with Early Corrections

• Price surged 12.6% from 3.587 to 4.065, driven by strong volume spikes in the early hours of 2025-09-19.
• A bullish breakout above the 4.00–4.05 consolidation range occurred around 00:15–00:45 ET, confirmed by rising volume.
• RSI and MACD signaled positive momentum from 19:00 ET onward, with no signs of overbought conditions yet.
• Volatility expanded in the 15-minute chart, with Bollinger Bands widening during the peak price rise.
• Downturn in the last 6 hours has tested key support at 3.90 and 3.85, but volume remains mixed.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at 3.587 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of 4.188, and closed at 4.065 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 1,922,102.339 units, with a notional turnover of $7,831,729.38. The pair experienced a sharp bullish move overnight, followed by a gradual pullback in the morning hours.

Structure & Formations

Price broke out of a multi-hour consolidation pattern between 3.90 and 4.05 during the early morning hours (00:15–00:30 ET), with a large bullish engulfing candle forming at that time. A key resistance level at 4.10 was tested but failed to hold. On the downside, a potential support zone appears between 3.85 and 3.90, where the last three 15-minute candles showed some buying interest after the initial pullback. A doji candle at 3.885 ET suggests indecision near that level, which may indicate a short-term floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended higher during the bullish phase, confirming the upward momentum. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period line, forming a golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period lines are in a bullish alignment, but the 200-period line has yet to cross above the 50-period, indicating a potential consolidation phase may still be ahead.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line just after 00:15 ET and remained in positive territory throughout the morning, with a strong histogram peak at 00:30–01:00 ET. The RSI climbed into overbought territory (above 70) briefly during that same period but has since declined to 56, suggesting the rally has paused rather than stalled. No oversold conditions were observed in the 24-hour period, although the RSI has flattened in recent hours.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the initial surge, with the upper band reaching 4.25 and the lower band dipping to 3.85. Price action from 03:45 to 04:00 ET showed a contraction in the bands, possibly signaling a potential reversal or consolidation phase. Price remains within the bands and has not yet broken below the lower band, indicating that the downward correction remains within expected bounds.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the bullish breakout (00:15–00:30 ET), reaching a peak of 110,719.779 units. The following 30 minutes showed a slightly lower but still strong volume, indicating continued conviction in the move. The pullback from 03:45–04:15 ET showed a moderate volume increase, suggesting some profit-taking and uncertainty. Turnover confirmed the volume spikes, with the highest notional value recorded during the 00:15–00:30 ET period.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 00:15–00:30 ET bullish move shows that the current pullback has tested the 38.2% (3.94) and 50% (3.89) levels. The 61.8% level sits at 3.84, which aligns with recent support observed in candlestick patterns. A break below this level would signal a stronger bearish sentiment and could target 3.77, a prior level of interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on identifying breakouts from consolidation patterns using Bollinger Bands and volume confirmation. A signal is generated when price closes above the upper band following a period of contraction and volume increases by at least 50% from the previous candle. The strategy also includes a stop-loss at the lower band and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the recent pattern and volume behavior on CVXUSDT, this strategy would have triggered a long entry near 4.00 with a target at 4.18 and a stop-loss at 3.84, aligning with observed price movements.