Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) – October 8, 2025

• CVXUSDT traded in a tight 24-hour range, failing to break above 3.634 or below 3.440.
• Strong volume expansion occurred near key support at 3.491–3.509 during the night hours.
• RSI remained in neutral territory, with no clear overbought/oversold signals.
• Bollinger Band contraction was evident mid-day, suggesting potential consolidation ahead.
• Price formation shows no clear bias, but bearish candlestick patterns emerged near daily highs.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at 3.588 on October 7 at 16:00 ET and closed at 3.484 on October 8 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 3.634 and a low of 3.402. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 669,581.485 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,382,430, calculated using the average price. The asset experienced moderate volatility with several failed breakouts on the 15-minute chart.

Structure & Formations

Price found key resistance at 3.634, where multiple bearish reversal patterns formed, including a dark cloud cover and a hanging man. The same level also coincided with a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of a recent bullish leg. On the downside, 3.491–3.509 acted as a strong support cluster, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming during the overnight hours. A large doji appeared near 3.509, indicating indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed during the early morning, forming a bullish crossover. However, this was quickly invalidated as price fell back below both lines. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 3.520, the 100-period MA at 3.510, and the 200-period MA at 3.495. This suggests a neutral to slightly bullish bias, with price currently hovering just below the 50-period MA.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in the zero line for most of the period, with a small bullish divergence forming near the 3.491 support level. RSI oscillated between 35 and 60, remaining in the mid-range and indicating a lack of strong momentum. The RSI did not breach the overbought threshold above 70 or the oversold threshold below 30, suggesting traders are cautious and the market is in a consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a clear contraction in the early hours of October 8, indicating reduced volatility and a potential breakout. Price was tightly contained within the bands until the afternoon, when a modest breakout to the upper band was attempted but failed. The lower band hovered around 3.440, with price touching it briefly but not forming a strong bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near 3.491–3.509 during the overnight hours, suggesting increased buying interest. This was confirmed by notional turnover, which also showed a significant increase. A divergence between volume and price occurred during the afternoon as price attempted to retest the upper band—volume declined despite a minor price rally, hinting at weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 24-hour swing (3.402 to 3.634) show key levels at 3.525 (38.2%) and 3.564 (61.8%). Price hovered near these levels in the morning and afternoon but failed to sustain a move higher. The 61.8% level has now become a critical psychological barrier, with potential for either a continuation or a reversal depending on future volume behavior.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves a mean-reversion approach using the Bollinger Bands and RSI. When price breaks below the lower band and RSI dips below 30, a long entry is triggered with a stop-loss placed below the next support level. Exit is triggered when RSI rises above 50 or after a 5% gain, whichever comes first. This strategy aligns with the observed price action, especially the consolidation phase and volume behavior near key support. The neutral RSI and tight Bollinger Bands suggest a high probability of a mean-reverting move, but traders should remain cautious as breakouts remain possible.