Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) – October 4, 2025

• Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.499 and closed at $3.663, with a 24-hour high of $3.822 and low of $3.498.
• Momentum accelerated during the early part of the session, followed by a pullback and consolidation.
• Volatility expanded in the first half of the 24-hour period, narrowing in the latter half with decreasing turnover.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and intraday Fibonacci retracement levels signaled potential bearish bias after a key swing high.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the morning ET rally, but faded as the pair moved lower, indicating weakening conviction.

At 12:00 ET–1, Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.499, surged to a high of $3.822, and closed at $3.663 by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 386,916.944 units, with a notional turnover of $1,420,090.69. The price action reflected strong early buying pressure before reversing lower, suggesting mixed sentiment and a lack of consensus.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern for CVXUSDT displayed a bearish reversal following an initial bullish breakout. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around the 14:15–14:30 ET timeframe, where the pair rejected a high of $3.822 and closed at $3.776. Additionally, a doji appeared near $3.773, signaling indecision after the sharp move higher. A key support level at $3.663 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the $3.498–$3.822 rally) held during the close, suggesting short-term buyers may be stepping in. Resistance is currently at $3.769, with a larger level at $3.809 also in play.

Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages indicate a recent bearish crossover as the price moved below both indicators. RSI reached overbought territory at 70 during the rally but has since corrected into neutral to slightly oversold territory (~45–50), implying some exhaustion in the downward move. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the latter half of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. However, the slow-moving daily chart still shows the price above the 200-period MA, suggesting the longer-term trend is not yet in freefall.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning ET rally, with the upper Bollinger Band reaching $3.822, a level not seen in the previous 24 hours. The price tested the upper band before retreating sharply. As the pair fell below the 20-period MA and moved toward the lower Bollinger Band, volatility contracted, indicating a narrowing range and potential consolidation phase. This could signal a temporary lull before another breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume occurred during the 14:15–14:30 ET candle, coinciding with the bearish reversal and break of the upper Bollinger Band. This suggests a sharp liquidation event. As the price declined, volume and turnover decreased, indicating weaker follow-through on the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume is notable during the late ET session, where the price continued to fall despite diminishing trading activity. This could imply a potential short-term bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the $3.498 low to the $3.822 high show the pair currently testing the 61.8% level at $3.663, which coincided with the 12:00 ET close. The 50% level at $3.711 appears to have acted as a key pivot point during the afternoon, with the price failing to hold above it. A break below the 38.2% level ($3.736) could signal further downside toward $3.622 (the prior 24-hour low). Conversely, a retest of the 50%–61.8% zone may trigger another bounce if short-term buyers emerge.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering a short position when the 15-minute RSI crosses above 70 (overbought) and the price breaks below the 20-period MA, with a stop loss above the recent swing high. Given the current RSI correction and bearish engulfing pattern, a short entry aligns with this approach. A target of $3.622 (the 38.2% retracement level) appears plausible within the next 24 hours, though the strategy could be refined to include a volume filter to ensure conviction in the shorting signal.