Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT)

Summary
• Price declined from 2.146 to 2.164 within the 24-hour period, showing moderate bullish bias in the final hours.
• Key resistance was tested at 2.16–2.17 with a failed breakout, suggesting near-term consolidation.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions near 70, while volume surged at 2.16–2.17 levels.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at 2.116 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 2.164 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. The pair reached a high of 2.180 and a low of 2.031 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 344,234.56 and turnover reached $708,211.69, reflecting moderate but uneven activity.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bullish consolidation pattern after the early morning pullback to 2.031. A key 2.16–2.17 resistance level was approached and rejected, with a large 15-minute bullish candle at 11:15–11:30 ET pushing the price to a 24-hour high. A small bearish engulfing pattern followed at 15:00–15:15 ET, suggesting potential for a near-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above both the 20- and 50-period SMAs, indicating short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at 2.13, while the 200-period SMA is near 2.10, suggesting that CVXUSDT may be testing mid-term support after the recent rally.

MACD & RSI

The 12:00 ET close saw RSI at 58.5, indicating neutral momentum with room for further gains. The MACD crossed into positive territory in the early hours of 11-12, maintaining a bullish divergence as price rose. RSI briefly hit overbought territory (70+) in the late hours of 11-12, raising the likelihood of a near-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded throughout the day as volatility increased, especially between 15:00–16:00 ET. Price peaked near the upper band during the 11:15–11:30 ET candle, followed by a contraction back toward the middle band, suggesting a possible exhaustion of bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key resistance tests at 2.16–2.17 and confirmed the push higher. However, a sharp divergence in turnover was observed after 15:00 ET, as volume declined despite price remaining elevated, signaling potential waning conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 2.16–2.18 move corresponds to a 61.8% retracement of the earlier 2.031–2.164 leg. On the daily chart, the 2.16–2.18 level represents a 38.2% retracement of a larger 2.03–2.18 range, suggesting a potential area of consolidation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup and overbought RSI readings, a backtest using an RSI(14) > 70 entry and a 50-period MA crossover as an exit would provide a structured approach to capturing momentum. RSI crossing up through 70 occurred at 11:15–11:30 ET, followed by a price high at 2.180. A 50-period MA crossover (close below MA) would have signaled an exit if entered at 11:30. Testing this strategy from 2022-01-01 would help validate its robustness.