Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT)

• Price declined from a high of $3.474 to close near $3.372, indicating bearish momentum over 24 hours.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with a low of $3.3 at 03:15 ET and a high of $3.45 at 00:30 ET.
• Key resistance appears near $3.43–$3.45, while support levels hold at $3.37–$3.39.
• Volume spiked during early recovery and subsequent pullbacks, suggesting active interest and potential for reversal.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions at times, but without strong bullish confirmation, bearish bias remains intact.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.382 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $3.474, a low of $3.3, and closed at $3.372 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. Total traded volume was 154,245.057, with a notional turnover of $498,371.32. Price action suggests a bearish bias amid choppy conditions and a key test of critical support and resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action during the 24-hour period was characterized by a large bearish engulfing pattern early in the session, followed by a failed recovery attempt and a doji near $3.433, suggesting indecision. A bearish flag formed between $3.39 and $3.42 as buyers failed to hold above key resistance. The low at $3.3 appears to represent a key psychological level, and a potential pivot point for short-term reversal could form if price stabilizes above $3.35.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bearish alignment, with price trading below both. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA sat at $3.398, while the 200-period MA was at $3.441. This bearish divergence suggests a continuation of the downward trend unless price shows a strong reversal above the 50-period level.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover with a negative histogram, confirming the downward pressure. RSI dipped into oversold territory twice during the session, notably at $3.3 and $3.327, but failed to generate a bullish reversal. The RSI remains in the 40–50 range, suggesting a neutral-to-bearish outlook unless a strong break above $3.45 confirms a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band at $3.3. Price then oscillated within the bands for much of the time, suggesting a potential consolidation phase after the sharp decline. A retest of the lower band may offer a buying opportunity if RSI confirms oversold conditions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline from $3.45 to $3.3, indicating significant selling pressure. A spike in volume also occurred during the attempted recovery near $3.42–$3.44, suggesting a potential short-covering rally. However, the lack of follow-through in the form of a sustained move above $3.45 suggests that the rally was not broad-based.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels appear at $3.385 (23.6%), $3.368 (38.2%), and $3.351 (61.8%). On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level is near $3.407, while the 61.8% level is at $3.373. Price closed near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a possible consolidation or bounce area if buyers re-enter the market.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around a breakout-below-the-lower-Bollinger-Band trigger at $3.3, followed by a stop-loss just above $3.41. Given the bearish momentum, the target could be set at $3.28–$3.30, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the oversold RSI readings. This would be a short-term bearish trade, with risk management focused on limiting exposure should price rebound above $3.43.