Market Overview: Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) 24-Hour Price Action

• Price surged past $2.85 before retracing to $2.45 near market close, forming a bearish divergence with volume
• RSI oversold at 27 late session, while MACD turned negative after bullish crossover earlier
• Volatility expanded with 15-minute Bollinger Bands, but price closed below the 20-period MA
• Key Fibonacci levels at 2.58 (61.8%) and 2.52 (38.2%) saw repeated rejection and absorption
• High-volume sell-off between 05:00–06:00 ET preceded sharp drop from $2.80 to $2.62

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $2.555 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $2.894 before closing at $2.514 on 2025-10-14 at the same time. The pair traded between $2.39 and $2.89, with total 24-hour trading volume amounting to 698,773.29 units and a notional turnover of $1,848,365.55.

The 15-minute chart shows a sharp bullish thrust from 19:30–20:00 ET, reaching a high of $2.89, followed by a bearish reversal as price tested and failed at key Fibonacci levels. The 20-period moving average held above $2.62, but the 50-period MA turned bearish, reinforcing the bearish trend. A bearish divergence between volume and price was evident during the final 3 hours of the session, with volume declining despite continued price declines.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early morning hours, reflecting heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band on the 15-minute chart, indicating oversold conditions. The RSI dropped below 30 during the final 2 hours, while the MACD line crossed below the signal line, confirming weakening bullish momentum. These indicators suggest a potential short-term reversal could occur if volume picks up near key support levels.

Notable candlestick patterns included a bearish engulfing pattern near the $2.80–$2.65 range, suggesting a shift in momentum. A series of lower highs and lower closes from 03:00–07:00 ET formed a descending triangle pattern, with the 2.52–2.55 range acting as a strong short-term support. The price may test this level again in the next 24 hours, with a break below 2.48 exposing further downside. Traders should monitor for a breakdown of 2.45 or a rejection near 2.50–2.53 as potential reversal signals.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the observed price patterns and momentum shifts, particularly the bearish engulfing and descending triangle, a backtesting strategy focusing on Bullish Engulfing signals could provide insight into potential reversal opportunities. However, the system encountered a ticker identification issue for CVXUSDT. To proceed, clarification is needed:
1. Confirm whether CVXUSDT is the correct pair listed on Binance or another exchange, or
2. Specify if the backtest should use the U.S. equity CVX (Chevron) instead.

Once confirmed, the backtest can be executed to evaluate the performance of the Bullish Engulfing pattern over a 3-day holding period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14, offering further actionable insight into reversal trade setups.