Market Overview: Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• CVXUSDT declined 24 hours by ~6.8%, closing near support near $3.29.
• Volume spiked during the downward move, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI oversold at ~30, suggesting possible near-term bounce potential.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate contraction, hinting at low volatility.
• Key support at $3.24 and resistance at $3.35 remain critical for direction.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.487 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.29 on 2025-10-09 at the same time, with a high of $3.601 and a low of $3.206. The 24-hour volume was approximately 328,047 units, with a notional turnover of ~$1,089,300. The price action reflects a bearish bias, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, especially during the early and late hours.

Structurally, the price formed several key bearish patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern during the 17:30–18:00 ET timeframe and a long lower shadow (inverted hammer) near the session close, which may signal indecision. Support levels appear to cluster near $3.29 (current close) and $3.24, while resistance is likely to be found at $3.35 and $3.40. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the major 15-minute swing from $3.601 to $3.206 is around $3.35, which could act as a critical pivot.

The 15-minute chart shows the price currently below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. The MACD has been in negative territory for much of the session, with a recent bearish crossover suggesting continued downward momentum. RSI has been oscillating between oversold and neutral levels, most recently hitting ~30, which may hint at a potential short-term bounce from oversold territory, though caution is warranted as it has not held above 40 consistently.

Bollinger Bands have shown a moderate contraction during the middle of the day, indicating reduced volatility. The price has been trading near the lower band for much of the 24-hour window, which is a bearish signal in this context. Notably, volume and turnover have shown a clear divergence from price highs during the early part of the session—high volume confirmed the bearish break from $3.60, whereas volume declined as the price tested lower levels, suggesting waning buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

The given backtesting strategy leverages a combination of RSI, MACD, and Fibonacci retracement levels to identify entry and exit points. A potential strategy could be entering a short position when the RSI drops below 30, the MACD confirms bearish crossover, and the price tests a Fibonacci retracement level. A stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% retracement level, while the take-profit could be near the next key support or after confirming a bullish reversal. The 24-hour analysis supports the strategy’s foundational logic, as the price has behaved within expected ranges given these indicators.