Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis

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• Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) closed at 3.505 after a 24-hour range of 3.35–3.59.
• Price surged past prior resistance with a strong volume spike in the late session.
• RSI shows overbought conditions, suggesting possible near-term consolidation.
• Volatility expanded near Bollinger Band edges, reflecting aggressive trader participation.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near key support of 3.50, signaling potential upside.

Opening and Closing Dynamics

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at 3.381 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 3.59 before closing at 3.505 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 407,884.194 CVX and a notional turnover of approximately $1,437,378 (assuming CVXUSDT averages ~3.52). The price action displayed a strong bullish bias in the latter half of the session, with a notable breakout from prior resistance.

Key Levels and Candlestick Patterns

The price found strong support at 3.50–3.51, where a bullish engulfing pattern formed after a bearish rejection. Resistance levels emerged at 3.55–3.57 and 3.58–3.60, both of which were tested multiple times. A doji appeared at 3.565–3.572, signaling indecision, while a strong green candle with high volume closed the session at 3.505, confirming bullish momentum.

Trend and Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (MA) crossed bullish, with the 20 MA sitting above the 50 MA. The daily chart showed the 50 MA above the 200 MA, indicating a longer-term bullish bias. The RSI reached overbought territory (above 65), and the MACD histogram showed a widening positive spread, suggesting strong upward momentum.

Volatility and Volume Behavior

Volatility expanded significantly during the 03:00–05:00 ET period, with Bollinger Bands widening to over 0.07 in range. Price remained near the upper band for several hours, reflecting strong buying pressure. Notional turnover spiked in the 3–5-hour window after 2025-09-18 03:00 ET, aligning with the breakout from 3.50–3.51. Volume was notably higher during the bullish phase, providing confirmation of the price move.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Levels

Price touched the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 3.54–3.56, and the 61.8% level at 3.58–3.60, both serving as critical decision points. The 3.50–3.51 support zone coincided with the 38.2% retracement from the earlier 3.35–3.59 swing, reinforcing its significance. The price may test the 3.58–3.60 level again for confirmation of a continuation.

Forward Outlook and Risk Note

In the next 24 hours, the 3.50–3.51 support may serve as a psychological floor, with a breakout above 3.58–3.60 likely to trigger further bullish momentum. However, a retest of 3.50 with bearish candlestick patterns could signal a reversal. Investors should monitor the RSI for a pullback into neutral territory before committing to further bullish positions.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish momentum, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a long entry at a close above the 3.50–3.51 support zone, with a stop loss placed below 3.48. A target of 3.58–3.60 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and prior resistance. This setup could be tested using a moving average crossover (20 MA above 50 MA) as a confirmation filter. The high volume and RSI divergence during the breakout period suggest this strategy may align with current market dynamics.