Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-27)

• Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) rose 5.5% over 24 hours, forming a bullish breakout above prior resistance at $3.12.
• Key support found at $3.09–3.10, with strong volume during early Asian session.
• RSI and MACD signaled growing momentum, while Bollinger Bands expanded, indicating rising volatility.
• Turnover surged during late NY and early London trading hours.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.026 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.181 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-27, rising to a high of $3.181 and dipping to a low of $3.026. Total volume reached 153,614.166 units, with a notional turnover of $468,862.67. The price action indicates a strong reversal and consolidation over key psychological levels.

Structure & Formations

The daily chart showed a bullish trend with a clear ascending triangle forming from $3.026 to $3.181. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged near $3.115, confirming a breakout above previous consolidation. A doji formed at $3.095, signaling a pause in momentum, followed by a sharp rally. Key resistance appears at $3.18 and $3.15, while support levels are seen at $3.105 and $3.08.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, indicating a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period SMA on the daily chart also crossed above the 100-period and 200-period lines, reinforcing a longer-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive and crossed above the signal line, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. The RSI climbed into overbought territory (75–80) during the final hours, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the sustained volume during the rally suggests that buyers are still in control.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased throughout the day, with Bollinger Bands expanding and the price closing near the upper band at $3.181. This suggests conviction in the move higher and may indicate a continuation if buyers hold at the lower band during the next trading session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late NY and early Asian sessions, particularly around $3.12–3.15. Notional turnover followed the same trend, confirming the breakout. A divergence between volume and price occurred after the doji at $3.095, hinting at a potential consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing from $3.026 to $3.181, the 61.8% level sits at $3.127, where the price stalled briefly. The 38.2% level at $3.103 appears as a short-term support area.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy using the 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI > 50 for entry and a stop-loss below the 20-period SMA, would have captured this rally with minimal false signals. The breakout above the consolidation pattern and the confirmation from RSI and MACD suggest this strategy may have a high win rate in similar conditions.