Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) - 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-18

• CVXUSDT rose 3.9% on a bullish breakout above 3.542 resistance.
• High volume confirmed strength in the 3.57–3.59 consolidation phase.
• RSI and MACD signaled accelerating momentum through the final 6 hours.
• Price traded in a tight range early before volatility expanded in the 12–16-hour window.
• A key 61.8% Fibonacci level at 3.554 may now act as support.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at 3.381 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.617 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The pair traded between 3.362 and 3.619 with a total volume of 255,606.099 and a turnover of approximately $906,346.53.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bullish bias after breaking out of a tight consolidation range at 3.542. The move from 3.381 to 3.617 was supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Key support levels were identified at 3.554 (61.8% Fibonacci) and 3.496, while resistance emerged at 3.57–3.59 and 3.619. A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 09:15 and 09:30 ET, followed by a potential continuation pattern with a doji at 11:45 ET.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages trended upwards, confirming the bullish momentum. Price hovered well above the 50SMA during the final 8 hours of the session. On a daily time frame, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA have all shifted lower, indicating a potential divergence with the intraday bullish move. This could suggest a short-term countertrend pullback is in play.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line late in the 24-hour window, forming a positive divergence with the RSI, which reached 62 and showed no signs of overbought conditions. RSI remained in a moderate to bullish range (45–65), suggesting the upward trend is still gaining strength rather than showing signs of exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 12–16-hour period, pushing price near the upper band. Price action spent most of the session between the middle and upper band, suggesting bullish momentum. A contraction in the Bollinger Band width occurred early in the session before the breakout, which may have signaled a low-volatility pause before a sharp move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 22:00–04:00 ET window, with the largest spike at 3.593–3.57 (12 hours into the session). The highest single-candle turnover was recorded at 3.619 with a volume of 42,603.81. Notional turnover increased proportionally with price, confirming bullish conviction. No significant volume divergence was observed during the move from 3.381 to 3.617, suggesting the uptrend remains well-supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major 15-minute swing from 3.362 to 3.619, key levels at 3.554 (61.8%) and 3.578 (50%) were tested multiple times. The 3.554 level acted as a strong support and may now serve as a potential floor for the next 24 hours. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the previous week’s range suggest 3.525 and 3.580 are critical to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish structure and confirmed breakout above key resistance, a potential backtest strategy would involve entering a long position on a close above 3.542 with a stop loss below 3.534. A take-profit target could be placed at 3.619 (initial resistance) with a second level at 3.645 (extending the Fibonacci projection). This aligns with the RSI and MACD momentum signals and would be best tested on historical 15-minute data from the past 3 months. The strategy would focus on intraday entries during high volatility periods (e.g., 19:00–23:00 ET) where volume and price action align most effectively.