Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) – 2025-11-13

Summary
• CVXUSDT opened at $2.018 and closed at $1.965, hitting a low of $1.957.
• A bearish trend emerged with a strong rejection at the $2.04–$2.07 resistance cluster.
• Volume dipped significantly after the $2.07 level failed, indicating bearish conviction.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $2.018 on 2025-11-13 and closed at $1.965 at 12:00 ET, with a daily high of $2.071 and a low of $1.957. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 440,814.13, and total turnover was approximately $883,095. The price action reflected a bearish reversal, with a key resistance zone at $2.04–$2.07 breaking down, suggesting continued downward pressure ahead.

Structure & Formations

The price of CVXUSDT formed a key bearish structure at the $2.04–$2.07 level, where it previously found resistance and failed to close above. A large bearish engulfing pattern occurred at $2.04–$2.028, confirming the shift in sentiment. A doji appeared at $2.004, suggesting indecision around the 1.99–2.01 support area. The $1.997 and $1.993 levels now appear to be key intraday support levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs show a bearish crossover (death cross), with prices currently below both. The 50-period SMA at $2.004 serves as a critical short-term pivot. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs are converging around $2.01–$2.02, reinforcing the bearish bias and indicating potential for further downside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is bearish with the line below the signal line and negative momentum. The RSI sits near 35, indicating moderate oversold territory, but without a clear trend reversal yet. Price continues to move lower despite a brief rebound post-1.993, suggesting that bears remain in control. The divergence between price and RSI remains weak, but could become more pronounced if volume wanes.

Bollinger Bands

Price has remained within the Bollinger Bands, but is sitting near the lower band at $1.95–$1.97, indicating moderate volatility. The narrowing of the bands earlier in the session suggested a possible breakout, which failed to materialize as bears took control. The current volatility remains in check, but further expansion could signal a continuation of the downward move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked around the $2.04–$2.07 level, confirming the rejection of that resistance. However, after the key bearish engulfing candle at $2.04, volume dipped significantly, which is a sign of reduced conviction. Notional turnover also declined during the final hours, suggesting a lack of buyers at current levels. Price and volume appear to be diverging slightly, with price moving lower on reduced volume, which may signal the potential for a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the $1.993 level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent $1.957–$2.043 swing, indicating a likely short-term support zone. On the daily chart, the $1.957 low appears to be at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the $1.984–$2.071 swing, suggesting that the bearish trend may be nearing a near-term pause or consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of the “MACD Golden Cross – 1-Day Hold” strategy on CVXUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13 yielded negative returns of –27.6%, with an annualised return of –4.5% and a Sharpe ratio of –0.29. The strategy suffered from frequent false signals and a poor risk-adjusted return profile, particularly due to the short 1-day holding period. The current bearish momentum and lack of strong bullish signals suggest that a simple MACD-based strategy may struggle unless combined with additional trend filters or extended holding periods.