Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) – 2025-11-01

• CVXUSDT traded lower over the last 24 hours, closing near 2.216 after a sharp intraday decline.
• Key support tested around 2.202–2.209, with a strong bearish engulfing pattern forming from 19:00 to 21:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded significantly during early trading, with a high of 2.271 followed by a sharp pullback.
• RSI remains in neutral territory (45–50), suggesting no immediate overbought or oversold conditions.
• On-balance volume shows divergence during the rally from 21:00 to 12:00 ET, indicating mixed conviction.

The 24-hour trading session for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at 2.245 on 2025-10-31 12:00 ET and closed at 2.216 on 2025-11-01 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 2.271 and a low of 2.184, with a total volume of 101,459.89 and notional turnover of ~$218,710. Price action showed a sharp bearish reversal during the first half of the session, followed by a range-bound consolidation toward the close.

Structure suggests a short-term bearish bias, with the 2.202–2.209 area serving as critical support and 2.225–2.235 as immediate resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 19:00 to 21:00 ET timeframe, confirming downward momentum after an earlier rally. A doji appeared around 00:15 ET, indicating indecision after the 2.214 peak, while a hanging man pattern at 10:45 ET hinted at bearish exhaustion. These formations reinforce the potential for further downside in the near term.

MACD remained bearish with a negative histogram and a 50-period crossover below the 20-period line, while RSI hovered around 50, showing no overbought pressure. The Bollinger Band width expanded early in the session, aligning with increased volatility, and price settled slightly above the lower band by the end of the 24-hour window. This suggests a period of bearish consolidation with no clear reversal signs. Volatility appears to be settling into a more neutral state as the session progresses.

Volume spiked during the initial bearish move but declined significantly during the consolidation phase, suggesting a lack of follow-through from sellers. Turnover during the early bearish phase (19:00–21:00 ET) was approximately $31,500, but it dropped to $10,000 during the 02:00–04:00 ET range. This divergence between price and volume may indicate weakening bearish momentum. Fibonacci retracements from the 2.271 high to the 2.184 low show 2.216 aligning with the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting potential support in the near term.

The backtest strategy in question focuses on detecting hammer candlestick patterns and generating 1-day holding signals. While the system could not be implemented for CVXUSDT due to data availability issues, it is worth noting that the hammer pattern often appears during bearish exhaustion and may align with the doji and hanging man formations observed in this session. A backtest using this pattern could offer insights into whether such signals yield statistically significant returns when held for one trading day. If implemented on a different liquid pair like BTCUSDT or ETHUSDT, the strategy would likely use moving averages and RSI to confirm entry and exit conditions. Once the symbol issue is resolved, a full performance analysis with metrics like CAGR, drawdown, and sharpe ratio can be conducted to assess the strategy’s robustness over a 3-year period.