Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) – 2025-10-26

• CVXUSDT opened at 2.232 and traded between 2.172 and 2.309 before closing at 2.298.
• A strong rebound from 2.172 to 2.297 after 05:00 ET suggests emerging bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded during the late-night to morning session, with over 18k volume in a key reversal candle.
• On-balance volume diverged from price during the initial decline but aligned with the rally.
• RSI and MACD suggest moderate overbought conditions, with momentum pulling back toward equilibrium.

The Convex Finance/Tether pair (CVXUSDT) opened at 2.232 on 2025-10-25 at 12:00 ET and traded as low as 2.172 before rallying to a 24-hour high of 2.309. The 24-hour close at 12:00 ET was 2.298, with total traded volume of 158,183.8 and notional turnover of $345,961. The price action displayed a sharp bearish drop during the evening hours, followed by a sustained rally through the night and early morning, culminating in a 4.9% rise.

Structure and formations showed a significant bearish breakdown from 2.24 to 2.172 between 19:15 and 02:00 ET. The subsequent rally formed multiple bullish candlestick patterns, including a morning star and a bullish engulfing pattern at the 09:30 ET timeframe. Key support levels appear to be around 2.216 and 2.172, with resistance forming at 2.237 and 2.309. A doji at 02:00 ET and a long upper shadow at 09:30 ET signaled potential exhaustion of the bearish trend.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed clear divergence, with the 20SMA crossing above the 50SMA during the 06:00–08:00 ET rebound. On the daily chart, the 50DMA has crossed above the 200DMA, forming a bullish golden cross. This reinforces the short-term bullish bias and suggests that buyers are in control of the near-term trend.

MACD showed a bullish crossover on 2025-10-26, with the histogram expanding during the rally from 05:00 to 11:00 ET, indicating strong upward momentum. RSI rose into overbought territory above 70, peaking at 75, but failed to close above it. Bollinger Bands displayed a notable expansion following the 09:30 ET candle, with price sitting near the upper band at 2.309. The volatility contraction earlier in the session had set the stage for a breakout.

The 15-minute chart saw notable volume spikes at 09:30 ET and 14:30 ET, with the largest notional turnover occurring at 11:45 ET (over $42,000 in a 15-minute candle). This coincided with a sharp upward move from 2.266 to 2.297. Price and volume acted in alignment during the 05:00–11:00 ET period, confirming the bullish breakout. However, divergence between volume and price was evident during the initial bearish leg, with volume failing to confirm the downward momentum.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 15-minute swing from 2.172 to 2.309 revealed 61.8% retracement at 2.259 and 38.2% at 2.231. The rally stalled near the 61.8% level before continuing higher, indicating strong demand above this area. On the daily chart, retracements from the 2025-10-25 breakdown suggest key resistance at 2.315 and 2.345, with 2.268 as a near-term support.

The RSI-based backtest strategy relies on identifying oversold entry points when RSI-14 dips below 30 and holding for a fixed 3-day period or until a 3-day exit signal is generated. The strategy assumes a long-only approach and does not include stop-loss rules, relying instead on a time-based exit. Given the 24-hour action of CVXUSDT, which saw RSI briefly entering oversold territory before a strong rebound, this pair may offer potential for short-term momentum trading. The success of such a strategy would depend on a consistent and reliable RSI-14 signal over the historical period, ideally in conjunction with a bullish trend and aligned with moving averages. The backtest will help determine if this approach has yielded positive risk-adjusted returns over time.