Market Overview for Contentos/Tether (COSUSDT) – October 9, 2025

• Price action showed a bearish trend, with a 0.45% decline from open to close.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential for short-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with intraday range widening by 0.8%.
• Bollinger Bands tightened pre-breakout, followed by a sharp move to the downside.
• Large-volume candle on 03:15 ET confirmed bearish momentum after consolidation.

Contentos/Tether (COSUSDT) opened at 0.002958 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.002904 on October 9 at the same hour. The 24-hour range extended between 0.002987 and 0.002840. Total trading volume amounted to approximately 50.9 million COS, with notional turnover of $146,989. The price action showed bearish control, with a final 1.8% close below the session open.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish trendline after the 03:00 ET consolidation, with a key support forming around 0.002880–0.002890. A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern confirmed the shift in sentiment during the 03:15 ET session. A notable doji appeared at 09:45 ET, signaling indecision following the sharp decline, though bearish momentum quickly resumed. Resistance remains at 0.002940–0.002950, where three failed attempts to retest were seen during the morning.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has been trading below the 20- and 50-period moving averages for the past six hours, confirming a short-term downtrend. The 50-period SMA has crossed below the 100-period on the daily chart, signaling bearish momentum. The 200-period SMA continues to act as a key long-term resistance level at 0.002965. A move above this level may signal a reversal, though such a development is currently unlikely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line at 03:30 ET and has remained in negative territory since, with a bearish histogram. RSI dipped into oversold territory around 30 during the 04:15 ET hour, suggesting short-term support may offer a bounce. However, given the volume dynamics and bearish price action, any rebound appears limited. RSI remains in the 30–40 range, indicating a possible continuation of the current downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a tight squeeze from 01:30 to 03:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion to the downside. The move below the lower band at 03:15 ET was confirmed by high volume, suggesting strong bearish conviction. Price currently resides near the lower band, with the channel width indicating moderate volatility. A return above the middle band would require a reversal above 0.002925, which seems unlikely in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 03:15 ET session, reaching over 12 million COS, confirming the bearish breakout from consolidation. Turnover spiked to $35,400 during this period, aligning with the sharp price move. The afternoon and evening sessions saw a steady decline in volume and turnover, with the 06:00–09:00 ET period showing lower activity. Price and turnover diverged slightly during the 09:15–10:30 ET window, with price continuing lower despite a moderate volume pickup. This divergence may indicate weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 03:15–05:00 ET swing, the 0.618 retracement level sits at 0.002895, which has acted as a minor support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the October 6–October 8 move is near 0.002885, where the price found brief support. A move below 0.002840 would suggest a test of the 0.002810 level on the 50% Fibonacci level. A break above 0.002940 could trigger a test of 0.002965, but such a scenario appears unlikely in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves a combination of RSI and volume divergence as entry triggers. Specifically, a sell signal is generated when RSI falls below 30 and volume increases by 150% or more from the prior candle. A buy signal is triggered when RSI crosses above 70 with a contraction in volume, suggesting exhaustion. Using the 03:15–03:30 ET candle as a case study, a sell signal would have been triggered due to the oversold RSI and large volume. A hypothetical short would have benefited from the subsequent 0.75% drop over the next two hours. This strategy may be effective in volatile, trending conditions but carries risk during false breakouts or consolidation periods.