Market Overview for ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) – 2025-10-05

• ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) closed higher on 24-hour data, showing a modest bullish bias with consolidation after a late rally.
• Price tested resistance at $0.0179–$0.0180 twice before retracing, indicating cautious buying pressure and key psychological levels.
• Volatility expanded in the early morning session, with volume peaking at $0.01785–$0.01795, confirming a breakout attempt and subsequent profit-taking.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions briefly, suggesting potential for consolidation or pullback; MACD remained neutral with a bullish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the overnight rally, with price settling near the upper band, indicating high conviction from buyers.

PEOPLEUSDT opened at $0.01711 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01775 on 2025-10-05 at the same time. The 24-hour period saw a high of $0.01813 and a low of $0.01711, with total volume of 163,028,149.4 and notional turnover of $2,886,566. The pair displayed a bullish bias after a late-night and early-morning surge, followed by consolidation and sideways movement.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, PEOPLEUSDT formed several key patterns on the 15-minute chart, including bullish engulfing patterns and a morning star near the $0.01745–$0.01755 range. A notable consolidation pattern emerged following a sharp rally above $0.01785, indicating cautious sentiment. The key support level appears to be around $0.01765, while resistance remains contested at $0.0179–$0.0180. A failure to hold above $0.01775 could trigger a retest of the 24-hour low.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum, as reflected by the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, shifted from bearish to bullish during the overnight session, confirming the breakout attempt. The 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA, signaling a potential short-term bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs remain bearish, with the 200-day MA acting as a long-term psychological resistance at $0.01785.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the early morning hours, confirming a shift in momentum. However, the histogram showed divergence as price failed to hold above $0.01785, suggesting caution. RSI peaked at 65 during the rally, briefly touching overbought territory, followed by a pullback to the mid-50s. This indicates that while buyers were active, they may have taken profits, increasing the likelihood of a near-term consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the overnight rally, with price reaching the upper band before retracing. This suggests a period of heightened volatility and conviction from buyers. Currently, the price is positioned just above the 20-period moving average within the bands, indicating a balanced market sentiment. A breakout above the upper band could signal increased bullish momentum, while a move below the lower band might confirm bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the overnight rally, particularly in the 2:00–4:00 AM ET window, as PEOPLEUSDT surged from $0.01755 to $0.01793. This was accompanied by a corresponding increase in turnover, indicating strong participation. However, in the early morning, volume and turnover declined as the price consolidated, suggesting profit-taking rather than fresh bullish momentum. The divergence between volume and price action after the $0.01785 level reinforces the idea that the rally lacked follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour move from $0.01711 to $0.01813, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels are at $0.01757 and $0.01792, respectively. The price stalled near the 61.8% level during the morning hours, suggesting that sellers gained control at this key retracement. A retest of the 38.2% level may offer a short-term support, while a breakdown below $0.01775 would target the 50% retracement at $0.01762.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a short-term breakout model, triggered by a 15-minute candle closing above the 20-period MA with a volume spike of at least 1.5x the 24-hour average. If confirmed by a MACD crossover above zero, the strategy aims to capture a 3–5% move with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. The recent rally from $0.01755 to $0.01793 fits this model, with the breakout confirmed by both volume and MACD. However, the pullback suggests that the strategy may need to include a dynamic trailing stop at $0.01775 to protect gains. This could improve risk-adjusted returns when tested on historical data.