Market Overview for Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) – October 9, 2025

• Price traded between 0.1444 and 0.1537, with 0.1537 as the session high and 0.1444 as the low.
• A strong bearish breakout occurred after 17:30 ET, confirmed by high volume and a long bearish candle.
• Momentum shifted from overbought to oversold, with RSI peaking at 61.8 and dropping below 30 in late hours.
• Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion following the breakout, indicating increased volatility.
• Volume spiked during the 17:15–17:30 ET timeframe, but turnover failed to confirm the price move, suggesting potential divergence.

The 24-hour period for Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) began at 0.1445 and closed at 0.1406, with a high of 0.1537 and a low of 0.1444. The total volume traded was 44,618,741.0, while notional turnover (amount) totaled 5,012.9. The pair experienced a sharp bearish correction after 17:30 ET, where price dropped from 0.155 to 0.1446 over the next 9 hours.

Structure and formations revealed a strong bearish engulfing pattern forming at the top of the 0.155–0.1446 range. A key resistance at 0.1525 failed to hold, and the price fell below a critical support at 0.1490. A morning doji near 0.1490–0.1492 suggested indecision, but failed to hold as volume continued to flow downward.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly, with the 50SMA now above the 20SMA. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA cluster appears to be forming a downward slope, suggesting a continuation bias if support at 0.1420–0.1430 holds.

MACD turned negative after 19:00 ET and remained bearish for most of the session, while RSI dropped below 30 for the last 8 hours, indicating oversold territory. However, this should be interpreted cautiously, as Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly from 0.1490–0.155 to 0.1363–0.1537, suggesting a potential consolidation phase is near. Price currently resides near the lower band at 0.1363–0.1406, which could indicate a short-term rebound.

The next 24 hours may see a test of 0.1420–0.1430 as a potential short-term floor, but bearish momentum could persist if volume increases with a break below 0.1406. A consolidation phase is possible if price stays above 0.1390, though further downside remains a risk in the absence of strong bullish reversal patterns or divergences in volume and turnover.

A Fibonacci retracement drawn from the swing high of 0.1537 to the swing low of 0.1363 shows key levels at 0.1493 (38.2%) and 0.1458 (61.8%). Price has tested 0.1458 twice and is currently consolidating near 0.1406. A break above 0.1458 could signal a short-term bounce, but failure to hold that level would likely lead to a retest of 0.1363.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below a 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a MACD crossover below the signal line. A stop-loss is placed at the recent swing high, and a take-profit target is set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level.

Given the recent bearish momentum and confirmed breakdown from key support, this setup appears to have a high probability of success. A test of this strategy on the current dataset would likely show a positive risk-reward profile, particularly in the 17:30–20:00 ET timeframe when price broke below 0.1500 and closed near 0.1490. However, the strategy should be refined with volume and RSI filters to avoid false signals during consolidation phases.